TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA / TROPICAL DISTURBANCE YUCATAN VICINITY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 8:45 P.M. EDT…SEP. 25, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: IDA, AOI 20%

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 9
HURRICANES: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good evening everyone!

Tropical Depression IDA is still hanging on…BARELY.  As of the 5:00 p.m. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on the depression:

5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 25
Location: 22.5°N 45.5°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb / 29.74 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

NHC TRACKING MAP
203511W5_NL_sm

Satellite imagery indicates the LLC is again, exposed to the west of the minimal convection.  This has been caused primarily by westerly shear throughout the day.  However, the most recent wind shear product indicates this has relaxed to about 10-15 knots over the system.

CIMSS IDA WIND SHEAR
tccaptureshearIDA

Based on these shear values, I am leaning towards dry air being the main culprit at the moment for the ragged appearance.

CIMSS DRY AIR PRODUCT
tccaptureDRY

IDA FLOATER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP
wv0IDA-lalo

Based on the current shear forecast, and premise of continued dry air intrusion, I concur with the NHC in that the depression should become a remnant in approximately 24 hours.

Based on analysis of the forecast steering pattern, the depression should make a turn toward the WSW in about 24 hours.  This is shown in the NHC tracking map, and concurs with the 18Z dynamic guidance, inline with the dynamic consensus.

ATCF 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

IDA 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

Elsewhere, I continue to monitor the trof of lower pressure near the Nicaragua/Honduras area.  Satellite loop imagery gives a fairly good picture  of some cyclonic turning.  Based on the station plot overlays, there is a noted wind shift over the Yucatan Peninsula, however there is no closed circulation at this time, and the strongest vorticity was located in the Gulf of Honduras. 

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2

tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2

CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY
wg8vor

Global models are still hinting at some type of low in about 24-36 hours in the southern GOMEX, however on the latest runs, modeling is pretty much all over the place as far as location and strength.  When the models get this way with their solutions, I  opt to monitor for development in real time, focusing mainly on the forecast upper level pattern, and forecast steering.  So, at the moment, no, I do not know where “it” is going to go, as “it” is not here yet…so until there is actually development, it’s pretty useless and somewhat foolish to try and pinpoint any exact “location”  However, based on analysis of the recent forecast steering layers maps, the suggestion is, the “center” should remain east of Louisiana, and could focus more eastward from MS to the western FL. Panhandle.

Again, as far as intensity, it is going to be better to deal with this in a real time scenario.  Upper level winds may only be marginal over the GOMEX, as a sharp trof is still forecast to be in place over southern TX, with the predominant flow over the Gulf being from SW to NE.  One thing I will mention on this…the further west this low is, the more affect wind shear will have on it.  IF this moves further east, closer toward FL., the current wind shear forecast and 200 mb streamline pattern does indicate shear to relax over a narrow area, with a small anticyclonic upper feature noted.  In any case, based only on what the models are showing, this should not amount to anything significant.  The GFS 10M wind forecast indicates 20 to possibly 30 knot winds at the most, over a small area.  Again, I’ll have a better idea once we see “something” develop.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 102 HOURS (FAVORABLE AREA CIRCLED)
850200shear17

GFS 10M WIND FORECAST
gfs 10m wind
Based on the current 7 day rainfall total estimates from the GFS, this could be somewhat wet.  Then again, as I said, information will change when and if we get development.

GFS 7 DAY TOTAL PRECIPITATION
GFS 7PRECIP

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA / TROPICAL DISTURBANCE YUCATAN VICINITY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 8:45 P.M. EDT…SEP. 25, 2015

  1. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm. Local forecasters here are not to concern .

  2. donchampo says:

    East of Louisiana sounds good to me

    Thanks for all you do btw

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