TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: INVEST 93L / INVEST 94L / AFRICAN WAVE
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*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
INVEST 93L has pretty much maintained Status Quo. The following was available on the disturbance as of the 06Z ATCF FTP product:
2:00 AM AST Mon Sep 14
Location: 11.0°N 37.5°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
Based on analysis of early morning satellite loop imagery, INVEST 93L appears much less organized.
Based on the broken cloud pattern, it appears drier air is currently affecting the system, based on the darker colors noted in various satellite image channels.
The NHC indicates a HIGH (90%) probability of cyclone development during the next 5 days, as environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable over the next few days. The recent wind shear product from CIMSS did indicate that albeit shear values are within conducive range, the 200 mb pattern did not appear optimal. The last available wind shear forecast map did indicate upper level winds are forecast to improve during the next 48 hours. This could aid in INVEST 93L becoming better organized, however with the premise of drier air this morning, and the diminishing cloud pattern surrounding the LLC, I am not as optimistic at the moment as the NHC.
Based on satellite loop imagery, INVEST 93L continues to move toward the west, around the periphery of the subtropical ridge, as indicated in the current steering layer.
Analysis of the Dynamic Guidance still indicates a sharp turn northward. However, based on satellite loop imagery, I do not feel this is in order as quickly as the models depict. I base this on the fact that the 06Z run indicates the center was at 37.5 W, and should have begun to make its turn. However satellite images indicate the center to be located around 40W. Based on analysis of the current forecast steering layers maps, this turn should still occur, however it may be slower to occur, given 93L appears to be weaker this morning.
I will continue to monitor this system for any further significant changes
Elsewhere, INVEST 94L in the extreme SW GOMEX continues to remain pretty much stationary. As of the 06Z ATCF FTP information, the following was available on 94L:
2:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 14
Location: 21.8°N 96.4°W
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.82 in.
Max sustained: 25 mph
The disturbance remains disorganized due to westerly shear.
The wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds may become marginal for a very brief period, and may be occurring based on the last couple of frames of the loop imagery, however proximity to land will be a negative factor on any steady organization. This, combined with the very brief window of marginal shear, should keep 94L below T.D. status. Of course, if the wind shear pattern changes over the next 48 hours, then a T.D. would not be out of the question.
Based on analysis of the forecast steering layers maps, I expect 94L to remain stationary for the next 18-24 hours, with a turn toward the WNW or NW thereafter. This path should bring it into Mexico in about 36 hours or so.
I will continue to monitor this closely, for any significant changes to the upper level pattern or steering.
Elsewhere, a tropical wave has now fully exited the African continent, and appears to be slightly better organized.
Upper level winds are currently conducive for further slow organization, and are forecast to become a little more conducive after about 48-54 hours down the road. Based on analysis of mid level water vapor imagery, development of this wave may be slow to occur. This has not been designated as of yet, however I believe it will be designated INVEST 95L sometime today.
This wave is currently moving toward the west, and I expect this motion, or a WNW motion to continue during the next 4 days, following into the same weakness that should be pulling 93L toward the north. Thereafter, forecast steering tends to show a ridge to the west of this, building toward the east. This may allow for a bend back toward the west, allowing it to head for another weakness further west.
I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS