TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: INVEST 93L / INVEST 94L / AFRICAN WAVE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good evening everyone!
The area of disturbed weather in the CATL is designated INVEST 93L. As of the 2:00 p.m. (18Z) ATCF FTP product, the following was available on INVEST 93L:
2:00 PM AST Sun Sep 13
Location: 10.3°N 35.5°W
Moving: N at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
Recent satellite loop imagery, and Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis (MTCSWA) indicates the disturbance continues to become better organized.
The recent wind shear analysis from CIMSS indicates upper level winds are currently favorable for further development if this disturbance, with notice of an upper level anticyclone developing over the system.
The 12Z wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds should remain for the most part, conducive for development through the next 60-72 hours. Based on this premise, with dry air appearing limited to the north of the system, and improvement in structure during the last few frames in the satellite loop imagery, I cannot rule out the development of a Tropical Depression during the next 24 hours. The NHC designates a HIGH (90%) probability of cyclone development during the next 5 days.
Save any dry air intrusion, based on the current wind shear forecast, I cannot rule out or next Tropical Storm. In fact (although probably a little aggressive at the moment), the more accurate of the intensity models brings this to Hurricane status within the next 72 hours.
The disturbance is currently moving toward the west, and I expect this motion to continue (W to WNW) for the next 24-30 hours. Thereafter, a turn more toward the NW should occur, as the system begins to feel a weakness in the subtropical ridge, due to a fairly strong break in the ridge. As we move out toward 72 hours in the period, this break/weakness becomes much more pronounced, and the system gets turned toward the N, then begins to accelerate toward the NNE. This is pretty much in line with the ATCF 18Z Dynamic Model guidance. I prefer the TVCN/TVCC tracks at the moment.
I will continue to monitor this system for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, an area of disturbed weather in the extreme SW GOMEX was left behind by the front that just pushed south. The NHC has designated this area INVEST 94L. As of the 2:00 p.m. (18Z) ATCF FTP product, the following was available on INVEST 94L:
2:00 PM AST Sun Sep 13
Location: 22.1°N 96.5°W
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.82 in.
Max sustained: 25 mph
Recent satellite loop imagery, and Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis (MTCSWA) indicates the disturbance may be trying to become slightly better organized.
The recent wind shear product from CIMSS does indicate that INVEST 94L is undergoing around 25 knots of westerly shear.
The 12Z wind shear forecast does indicate upper level winds could relax over the next 48 hours, becoming marginal, with the premise of a brief, slight upper level anticyclone. Thereafter, wind shear is once again forecast to pick up again, with upper level winds becoming unfavorable for development. The preliminary intensity forecast doesn’t even bring this to depression status over the next 72 hours, based on the more accurate of the models.
INVEST 94L is pretty much stationary at the moment, as it is embedded in a weak steering regime. Based on analysis of the forecast steering layers maps, the disturbance should begin to move toward the WNW to NW 36 hours, as ridging builds over the SEUS. This motion should continue, according to the steering layers forecast, which should allow this disturbance to ride near the Mexican coast, and eventually coming ashore in northern Mexico, just shy of the Texas border. I will continue to monitor this disturbance for any significant changes during the next 72 hours.
Elsewhere, another tropical wave has exited the African coast, and is currently moving to the west. Forecast steering layers maps indicate at the moment, that a general westward track should be in order during the next 72-96 hours. Thereafter, the wave could follow behind INVEST 93L. This is going to be a little tricky, in that IF this wave doesn’t catch the weakness fully, forecast steering indicates ridging could begin to build in from the west.
Analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS in the EATL, upper level winds are currently conducive for further slow organization of this wave, and upper level winds could remain fairly conducive, although not optimal, for further slow organization of the wave during the next 72 hours. I will continue to monitor this wave during the next 72-96 hours for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS