TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE / TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 09, 2015…10:00 A.M. EDT

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: GRACE, T.D. EIGHT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 7
HURRICANES: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

Tropical Depression GRACE is still on the board.  As of the 5:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on GRACE:

5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 9

Location: 14.3°N 47.2°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph

HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAP
HURREVAC.GRACE

Satellite loop imagery indicates a very small thunderstorm over GRACE.  GRACE’s structure is pretty much deteriorated, and given the westerly wind shear, surrounding dry air, and stable environment, I concur with the NHC intensity scheme.  I do believe the depression may even degenerate a tad bit sooner than expected.  At any rate, within the next 24 – 36 hours, GRACE should be history.  One thing that is noted, albeit track guidance is in agreement, the GFS and CMC bring her remnant wave into the Bahamas later int he forecast period, and the CMC wants  to regenerate it, bring it across FL., and develop a tropical storm in the W. GOMEX.  The CMC solution does not seem plausible at this point, given the hostile conditions the remnant of GRACE will encounter.

GRACE FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn0grace-lalo

rgb0GRACE-lalo

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 14.3N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 14.9N 53.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 15.4N 56.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z 15.9N 60.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z…DISSIPATED

Based on analysis of forecast steering layers maps, The NHC forecast track looks  good, and pretty much mimics the 12Z Dynamic Model guidance TVCC/TVCN consensus. 
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days.

ATCF 12Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
GRACE 12Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

Elsewhere, INVEST 92L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression EIGHT.  As off the 5:00 a.m. advisory, the following information was available on the depression:

5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 9
Location: 30.9°N 61.4°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAP
HURREVAC.EIGHT

Satellite loop imagery indicates no change in structure, with the LLC being exposed to the WSW of the convective area.  This is being caused by wind shear of 15-20 knots, based on the recent wind shear map from CIMSS.

T.D. EIGHT FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn0TD8-lalo

rgb0EIGHT-lalo

T.D. EIGHT CIMSS WIND SHEAR
tccaptureshearEIGHT

The current wind shear forecast does indicate upper level winds should become more conducive for development within the next 24-36 hours, showing the development of an upper level anticyclone either over, or near the center of the depression.  The NHC mentions this should cross the north wall of the Gulfstream in 2-3 days, however I am a bit confused on this, as the SST profile indicates the Gulfstream to be located several hundred miles west of the forecast track.  I do believe however slow strengthening is in order once the upper level winds improve, given the close proximity of dry air, which will limit strengthening.  I do agree with the NHC intensity on this, as the middle of the intensity models seems plausible, and T.D. EIGHT could become our next Tropical Storm.

T.D. EIGHT SST PROFILE
tccapturesst

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 30.9N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 31.3N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 32.5N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 34.7N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 37.7N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 44.5N 56.8W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z 48.5N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 48.0N 22.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

The depression is still pretty much stationary, due to the lack of steering currents at this time.  Analysis of the current forecast steering layers maps does however indicate, a slow northward motion should occur during the next 24 – 36 hours.  Thereafter, as per the NHC discussion, a stronger NE flow is forecast, and this should accelerate the system toward the NE, then eventually eastward.  The NHC forecast track depicts this, which the dynamic guidance in good agreement.

ATCF T.D. 8 DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
EIGHT 12Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

Elsewhere, analysis of the global models this morning indicates the models have backed off as far as intensity on a possible development in the SW GOMEX by mid week next week.  The models do however still “hint” at low pressure IVO the BOC to western Gulf.  Again, just because global models “hint” at, or show a definitive entity, does not necessarily indicate a sure development.  However, I will be monitoring the GOMEX as the time period grows closer, as the 200 mb streamline forecast still indicates upper level winds over the GOMEX to become conducive for development, in that an upper level anticyclone takes shape over the Gulf in and around the time-frame.

GFS
GFS150ECMWF
ECMWF144
CMC
CMC.174
GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
200 mb streamline
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE / TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 09, 2015…10:00 A.M. EDT

  1. PortABeachBum says:

    P.S. – Thanks Storm. I too get the Heebie Jeebies when I see GOMEX mentioned in WX reports!!!

    • I know the feeling. The thing is, it’s just a watch and see thing…as the ECMWF is the only model really bullish on the GOMEX solution

    • dellamom says:

      PortA, the house was the LeBeau Plantation. Built in 1854 by Francois LeBeau, he died that same year and his widow, Sylvanie Fuselier lived there until she died in 1879. Between the 1920s and ’40s, it was the Cardone Hotel. It’s been vacant for about 50 years, had a fire in the attic in 1986, and in November 2013 was burned to the ground by 4 men who were part of a group of 7 who were trying to raise ghosts (marijuana and alcohol-fueled attempts), and burned it in anger when they were not successful. One of the three not convicted of arson had been a tenant of my husband and he was removed from the premises a month or so prior to the fire. I remember him telling me about the fire and his ex-tenant, but didn’t know the house’s background. Prior to the fire, there were attempts to raise funds (post-Katrina) to restore the house due to its history. It was the largest plantation home to survive into the 21st Century in that area. It was quite a notable structure.

  2. dellamom says:

    I know the Gulf is wide, but the word “GOMEX” in a forecast perks up my ears (eyes?). Given that Katrina was forecast by most people to not come here at all, and the contraflow was suddenly moved up from late afternoon to noon and I had to scramble to get my mother out of St. Bernard Parish before noon, I tend to be a bit concerned whenever GOMEX is mentioned. She would have drowned if I hadn’t been able to get her out in time. Her house took 2 inches in Betsy and 7 feet in Katrina. I can only imagine that some of the people who died there did so because their relatives couldn’t get in to get them out and they were unable to drive themselves anymore due to age or infirmity. It had a large older population. Sorry for the novel.

    • That’s ok. The facts are appreciated. That’s why when a storm threatens, I post the SLOSH data, of wht might be expected as far as storm surge tide. I saved some folks here during IKE.

      • dellamom says:

        I keep being reminded of Galveston, when you and others whose opinions I respect kept repeating that they had to get out because of the surge, and the officials were telling them there was no need because it wasn’t a major storm. I respect your forecasts and opinions because you are right most of the time and you focus on the WHOLE package and then you explain it to us in understandable terms. Wheaties, Storm, Wheaties!!!!

    • PortABeachBum says:

      74 years ago, just before (and just after) the start of WW II (for the US), I moved from Oahu (Terr. Hawaii) to Jackson Barracks (New Orleans) and remember the area of what is now called Arabi. It was just across the barracks-wall separating Orleans and St. Bernard Parishes. At that time there was almost nothing in the way of development at that location. In fact close to the levee there was what appeared to be an old “Plantation Home” and I have often wondered (a.) Who owned it and lived there?; and, (b) What ever happened to it in the intervening years? There used to be a sugar mill about 3/4 mile down the river but not much in between.
      Looking at Google-Earth images I see masses of humanity have developed the area. Apparently the trees dripping with Spanish Moss have given way to suburbia.
      Now I see the same thing happening to our barrier island (Mustang Isl.) where I have lived the past 41 years. Maybe we’ll go up to the “Hill Country” of TX but that, I find, is “One of the fastest growing areas in the World!” It’s hard to stay ahead of the teeming masses!

      • dellamom says:

        Port A, Katrina kind of took care of a lot of the teeming masses around the Jackson Barracks, although the Barracks are still there. Unfortunately she took most of the few remaining trees. There were large buildings just at the levee which were used for military family housing, I have been told. After Katrina, they were not repaired according to my information. That is sad because they had obviously faced many former hurricanes in their time. My husband went to high school many many years ago at Holy Cross High School in that area and he would probably know about the plantation. I will ask him. Thank you for your service to our country, sir.

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