TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: FRED, MONITORING
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 6
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
Tropical Storm FRED as of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC in Miami, still had sustained winds of 45 mph. However, FRED has been traversing much cooler SST’s over the past few hours, and has been encountering wind shear out of the WSW on the order of around 25 knots. This has caused FRED to become tilted with height, and thus has exposed the LLC to the SW of the convection, as noted in satellite loop imagery.
The NHC notes in their forecast discussion, that given the lack of convection around the center for most of the day, that FRED will most likely become a Post-Tropical Low very soon.
Based on my analysis of the updated forecast steering layers maps, I agree with the NHC forecast track, which is inline with most of the Dynamic Model track guidance, and in agreement with the TVCC/ TVCN consensus models.
Elsewhere, while analyzing satellite loop imagery (various channels), an area of disturbed weather caught my eye in the CATL near 10N;40W. Convection appears to have increased slightly during the past few hours, and in the last couple of frames of the VIS and RGB imagery loops, it appears a slight cyclonic motion may be developing. RGB imagery tends to indicate possible turning closer to the surface. TPW loop imagery did confirm some slight rotation earlier, however TPW has diminished at this point. Upper level winds over the area, are currently favorable, and the current shear forecast indicates upper level winds may remain somewhat favorable during the next 54 hours. I do not expect any significant organization at this time, given the lack of any significant moisture, however I monitor the area for any significant changes.
Analysis of the global models still indicates we could see a large, non tropical low IVO Bermuda in about 6 days. The more reliable modeling has been on and off with this over the past few runs.
Global models also seem to “hint” at a very small area of low pressure near the Florida east coast in about 5 days. The GFS and ECMWF do not seem impressed, with the CMC being the bullish model. The CMC also indicates a “crossover” from the PAC side in about 8 days. Based on the premise that the GFS and ECMWF do not indicate anything in the PAC side, I’m going to consider the CMC the outlier at this time.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /
SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS