TROPICAL STORM FRED / CATL DISTURBED WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 02, 2015…4:10 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: FRED, MONITORING

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 6
HURRICANES: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

Tropical Storm FRED as of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC in Miami, still had sustained winds of 45 mph.  However, FRED has been traversing much cooler SST’s over the past few hours, and has been encountering wind shear out of the WSW on the order of around 25 knots.  This has caused FRED to become tilted with height, and thus has exposed the LLC to the SW of the convection, as noted in satellite loop imagery.

RAMSDIS METEOSAT 4 FLOATER IMAGE LOOPS
tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater

tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

The NHC notes in their forecast discussion, that given the lack of convection around the center for most of the day, that FRED will most likely become a Post-Tropical Low very soon.

Based on my analysis of the updated forecast steering layers maps, I agree with the NHC forecast track, which is inline with most of the Dynamic Model track guidance, and in agreement with the TVCC/ TVCN consensus models.

ATCF 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
FRED 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
Based on this information, this will be my final forecast synopsis on FRED.

Elsewhere, while analyzing satellite loop imagery (various channels), an area of disturbed weather caught my eye in the CATL near 10N;40W.  Convection appears to have increased slightly during the past few hours, and in the last couple of frames of the VIS and RGB imagery loops, it appears a slight cyclonic motion may be developing.  RGB imagery tends to indicate possible turning closer to the surface.  TPW loop imagery did confirm some slight rotation earlier, however TPW has diminished at this point.  Upper level winds over the area, are currently favorable, and the current shear forecast indicates upper level winds may remain somewhat favorable during the next 54 hours. I do not expect any significant organization at this time, given the lack of any significant moisture, however I monitor the area for any significant changes.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (AVN/RGB)
avn-l

rgb-l

RAMSDIS VIS/IR FLOATER LOOP
tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2

Analysis of the global models still indicates we could see a large, non tropical low IVO Bermuda in about 6 days.  The more reliable modeling has been on and off with this over the past few runs.

Global models also seem to “hint” at a very small area of low pressure near the Florida east coast in about 5 days.  The GFS and ECMWF do not seem impressed, with the CMC being the bullish model.  The CMC also indicates a “crossover” from the PAC side in about 8 days.  Based on the premise that the GFS and ECMWF do not indicate anything in the PAC side, I’m going to consider the CMC the outlier at this time.

GFS
GFS
ECMWF
ECMWF

CMC
CMC
CMC.192
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /
SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL STORM FRED / CATL DISTURBED WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 02, 2015…4:10 P.M. EDT

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Hello Dellamom and all. In IAH for week. Hopefully making final preps for moving back home to Texas

    • dellamom says:

      Good luck and I hope you can move before winter sets in. I moved to Minnesota in my misguided youth and was very happy when circumstances changed and I was able to move back home, mosquitos, heat, humidity, bad drivers and all.

    • PortABeachBum says:

      Sure hope you escape from IAH in one piece!!

      If we get through the hurricane season now, we”ll have a couple of properties we will want to pass off to some unsuspecting souls. – – – Just think of the wonders of living only 100 yards from beautiful GOM. Only a two minute walk will find you picking up donax, starfish and sand-dollars off the beach! A three minute walk will add a year to your life!

      Well, Maybe the fact that we are in our eighties has something to do with our wondering, “What are we going to do with all this?” The “kids” have little interest! Not true!! They’ll be coming down to claim their share!!

      Welcome back to Texas. We seem to have room for everyone these days!

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I guess we are heading into the time of year when “home grown” mischief pops up, although the Cape Verde storms have not yet stopped.

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