TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: FRED, LOW (20%)
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 6
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
What once was Hurricane FRED, has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm. The following information was available on FRED as of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC.
11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 1
Location: 18.3°N 27.0°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in
Max sustained: 50 mph
Based on my analysis of current and forecast wind shear products, and forecast steering layers products, I concur with the NHC forecast track and intensity. Forecast steering indicates FRED should continue as forecast, as a trof deepens near 50W within the next 72 hours. This will guide FRED more toward the NW, then eventually slowly northward.
Based on the premise of increasing wind shear and some possible dry air intrusion over the next few days, the NHC intensity forecast seems to be spot on. I will continue to monitor FRED during the next 72 hours for any appreciable changes to the steering pattern.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT
01/1500Z 18.3N 27.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 19.0N 28.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 19.8N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 20.5N 31.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 21.1N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 22.8N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z 24.4N 38.9W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z 26.5N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Elsewhere, the NHC has taken interest in a wave located over the African continent at the moment, and has designated a LOW (20%) probability of cyclone formation during the next 5 days.
The NHC indicates this wave should exit into the Atlantic by Thursday.
EUMETSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGE (CLICK ON IMAGES)
Based on my analysis of the most current information available at the time of analysis, I believe once the feature enters the Atlantic, we should see some slow development. Recent RGB satellite imagery (dust channel) indicates a lack of SAL. SST anomalies are warm enough in that this should not fizzle once it hits the water.
Current wind shear maps indicate upper level winds are currently favorable. The current wind shear forecast (zonal) from the GFS indicates upper level winds are forecast to be somewhat, to better than marginally favorable, with a broad upper level anticyclone developing in the MDR and most likely over and in the path the wave may take. The forecast steering layers product does indicate a motion in agreement with the NHC Tropical Outlook graphic for the 5 day forecast period. Unless something changes abruptly in the forecast pattern, we should see some slow development once the feature hits the water.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /
SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS