TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: 90L (10%), FRED
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 6
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good evening everyone!
The remnants of Erika continue to be sheared apart, and are now pretty much a elongated surface trof. This area of showers and thunderstorms continues to move toward the NNW, and will bring enhanced probabilities of thunderstorm activity across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next 48 hours or so. Analysis of current and forecast wind shear during the next 48 hours indicates wind shear to remain unfavorable for any regeneration. The wind shear is remaining in place, a little longer than the forecast has been projecting. The NHC has downgraded regeneration probabilities to LOW (10%) during the next 5 days in the current Tropical Weather Outlook:
NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
Portions of the Florida peninsula could receive heavy precipitation amounts, and residents who have experienced substantial flooding over the past month may wish to monitor there local NWS office. The following is the current QPF.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm FRED continues to become better organized at a steady rate. As of the 2:00 p.m. Intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on FRED:
2:00 PM AST Sun Aug 30
Location: 14.1°N 20.7°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53 in
Max sustained: 60 mph
Analysis of various satellite loop imagery channels, FRED has become increasingly better organized over the past few hours. Satellite imagery indicates the development of a CDO (Central Dense Overcast), and an increase in banding structure, especially to the south of the center. Some scattered overshooting tops are also noted beginning to pop up. This is an indication that FRED is continuing to strengthen.
Analysis of the current wind shear products from CIMSS indicates an upper level anticyclone is established over the storm.
The wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds to remain conducive for about the next 48-54 hours. Thereafter, wind shear is expected to increase, and as FRED moves over cooler SST’s, weakening should begin. Based on the steady organization of FRED over the past few hours, and premise of favorable upper level winds, FRED should continue to strengthen during the next 36-48 hours. At the moment, I do concur with the NHC intensity forecast, however I will not rule out FRED possibly attaining Hurricane status sooner than expected.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 13.4N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 14.3N 21.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 15.7N 23.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.2N 25.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.3N 27.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 19.5N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 20.5N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 21.0N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
FRED is moving to the NW,and I expect this motion to continue for the next 24-36 hours, before more of a WNW track ensues. However, based on the updated forecast steering layers product, and 18Z Dynamic model guidance, FRED may not turn as much to the west as had been forecast, but more of a WNW track. At the moment, I like the NHC forecast track, but I prefer a blend of the NHC OFCL track and the consensus models TVCN. In fact, the Dynamic guidance has shifted to the right over the past 2 runs.
Based upon analysis of the forecast steering layers product, the pattern is still indicating a high probability at the moment of FRED re-curving at around day 6-7 in the forecast period. However this is to be considered preliminary, in that we saw how steering can change over such a short period of time, as we did with Erika.
I will continue to monitor this system for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, the ECMWF and CMC indicate a large. non tropical low to develop near Bermuda during the next 6-8 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /
SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS