TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: ERIKA
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop,ics. but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good evening everyone!
This system has definitely shown how fast forecast conditions can change…especially with steering.
Erika has continue to move more toward the west during today, or as we’d say, just north of due west. Based on my analysis this evening, I attribute this to the subtropical ridge displaying a stronger west component on the far southern periphery, and on and off exposure of Erika’s LLC. This exposure will allow for the center to be guided by the lower level mean from 700 – 850 mb. As of the 5:00 p.m. advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Erika:
5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 28
Location: 17.9°N 71.2°W
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 50 mph
One thing noticed in satellite loop imagery is, convection continues to fire very close to the center of Erika, even though the center is beginning to interact with land. This is mainly due to orographic uplift.
Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 12 – 18 hours, with some fluctuations in actual true track, but relatively to the WNW. Any fluctuation will be mainly attributed to interaction with Hispaniola. Based on analysis of satellite loop imagery, and current steering, Erika may travel slightly further toward the west, than what the current forecast points indicate, prior to feeling the weakness in the ridge due to a trof forecast pretty much over Florida. Based on these two parameters, I believe dynamic models could shift a little more left, and the NHC track may shift slightly off the west coast of Florida. This is also going to depend on how weak Erika may become. The weaker she is, the more of a westerly component. So at the moment, I agree with the current NHC forecast track. I am going to have to wait and see where the LLC (if any circulation survives) exits after crossing Hispaniola.
Based on the NHC intensity forecast, they indicate the remnant of Erika could regenerate as it pulls away from Cuba in the current forecast track. The possibility of this could exist, but is extremely slim given the forecast track, as Erika will be traversing over some very high mountainous terrain. Albeit the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds may begin to relax over the next 24 hours, with the premise of an upper level anticyclone trying to develop over the area of the 48 hour forecast point, and Erika entering high OHC, we will have to see if anything remains of the LLC. Based on the forecast track during the next 24 hours, and drier air to her west, I have to concur with the ECMWF and GFS solution in that becomes an open wave upon her crossing of Hispaniola. IF this does not occur, this forecaster will be shockingly surprised.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
NHC ERIKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings still remain in effect for the following locations:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of Hispaniola.
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
I will continue to monitor the progress of this system during the next 48 hours for any significant changes. Residents of the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system, for not so much as strong wind or possible heavy damage, but for possible excessive rainfall amounts that may occur should things change, seeings how saturated most portions of Florida have become to excessive rainfall over the past month.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /
SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS