TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 28, 2015…7:15 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: ERIKA

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop,ics. but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 5
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good evening everyone!

This system has definitely shown how fast forecast conditions can change…especially with steering.

Erika has continue to move more toward the west during today, or as we’d say, just north of due west.  Based on my analysis this evening, I attribute this to the subtropical ridge displaying a stronger west component on the far southern periphery, and on and off exposure of Erika’s LLC.  This exposure will allow for the center to be guided by the lower level mean from 700 –  850 mb.  As of the 5:00 p.m. advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Erika:

5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 28
Location: 17.9°N 71.2°W
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 50 mph

HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAPS
HURREVAC.erika

HURREVAC.erika72

One thing noticed in satellite loop imagery is, convection continues to fire very close to the center of Erika, even though the center is beginning to interact with land.  This is mainly due to orographic uplift.

ERIKA FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn0ERIKA-lalo

rgb0ERIKA-lalo

Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 12 – 18 hours, with some fluctuations in actual true track, but relatively to the WNW.  Any fluctuation will be mainly attributed to interaction with Hispaniola.  Based on analysis of satellite loop imagery, and current steering, Erika may travel slightly further toward the west, than what the current forecast points indicate, prior to feeling the weakness in the ridge due to a trof forecast pretty much over Florida.  Based on these two parameters, I believe dynamic models could shift a little more left, and the NHC track may shift slightly off the west coast of Florida.  This is also going to depend on how weak Erika may become.  The weaker she is, the more of a westerly component.  So at the moment, I agree with the current NHC forecast track.  I am going to have to wait and see where the LLC (if any circulation survives) exits after crossing Hispaniola.

18Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
ERIKA 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

SSEC LAYER MEAN STEERING
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Based on the NHC intensity forecast, they indicate the remnant of Erika could regenerate as it pulls away from Cuba in the current forecast track.  The possibility of this could exist, but is extremely slim given the forecast track, as Erika will be traversing over some very high mountainous terrain.  Albeit the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds may begin to relax over the next 24 hours, with the premise of an upper level anticyclone trying to develop over the area of the 48 hour forecast point, and Erika entering high OHC, we will have to see if anything remains of the LLC.  Based on the forecast track during the next 24 hours, and drier air to her west, I have to concur with the ECMWF and GFS solution in that becomes an open wave upon her crossing of Hispaniola.  IF this does not occur, this forecaster will be shockingly surprised.

ERIKA CURRENT SHEAR AND OHC
tccaptureshear

tccaptureohc

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
850200shear9
NHC ERIKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/282055.shtml?

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings still remain in effect for the following locations:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika.  Additional watches and warnings could be
needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of
Hispaniola.

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls5+shtml/281906.shtml?

I will continue to monitor the progress of this system during the next 48 hours for any significant changes.  Residents of the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system, for not so much as strong wind or possible heavy damage, but for possible excessive rainfall amounts that may occur should things change, seeings how saturated most portions of Florida have become to excessive rainfall over the past month.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /
SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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11 Responses to TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 28, 2015…7:15 P.M. EDT

  1. Greg Goodman says:

    Glad to see you back Mr storm. We have missed you.

  2. Diane says:

    Welcome back. Missed your analysis this week. Glad you are back. I appreciate what you do.

  3. donchampo says:

    Flying to FFL on 9/12 and driving to Marathon for a one week stay. Please do your best to keep the storms away for that period. Lol
    Thanks for all you do. Much appreciated.

  4. Donna says:

    Storm, you were, as usual, correct, and Erika has tracked more westerly. The 5AM Saturday forecast track takes her over Cuba at Cienfuegos. I am not at all meteorologically competent, but it appears to me that at that point, according to the topographical map of Cuba, her northeastern quadrant would encounter foothills and mountains, but most of her would miss that impediment. A turn to the north or NNW would allow her to miss the worst of the land threats to her survival, and she would exit into extremely low windshear and extremely high OHC. If she continues heading willfully slightly north of west, there are no pinks in the GFS OHC map to thwart her. I vote for something in between so she fights the mountains of northwestern Cuba. So much depends on where and when she departs Cuba. Prayers to all in the path of Erika, as too much rain is as bad as too much wind. Sorry for the length, but this Erika a weird one.

  5. dellamom says:

    Welcome back and thank you.

  6. originallt says:

    Thanks for the latest up-date, Storm. Much appreciated!

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