TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L SPECIAL EVENING UPDATE…ISSUED AUG. 17, 2015…8:25 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: HIGH (80%)

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good evening everyone!

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 96L continues to move toward the west at near 15 mph.  Based on the 18Z ATCF FTP information, the following was the latest information on INVEST 96L:

Location: 9.8°N 32.2°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb/29.82 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

ATCF data indicates the radius of 30 knot (35mph) winds is 150 nm to the NE, 50 nm SE, and 40 nm SW.  Estimated pressure has dropped 1 mb.

Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates the disturbance has become a little better organized over the past few hours, with a slight increase in convective activity.

INVEST 96L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP
avn0-lalo96L

RAMSDIS GOES EAST FLOATER SATELLITE LOOPS
tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

Water vapor loop imagery indicates dry air still surrounds the system well to the north and south, however 96L seems to have been able to mix out dry air that was located much closer to the system earlier, and expansion in the moisture field is noted around the current convection as seen by the bright white cloud field.  The recent TPW image from 2200Z still indicates plenty of precipitable water surrounding the disturbance.  This may be enough to stave off dry air intrusion, at least for tonight.

CATL WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY
wvcatl-l

INVEST 96L TPW IMAGE
tccapturetpw

The most recent wind shear map overlay still indicated an upper level anticyclone over the disturbance,  still providing an outflow pattern, and wind shear values were noted to be on the order of  only 5-10 knots.

INVEST 96L WIND SHEAR IMAGE
tccaptureshear

The recent wind shear forecast still keeps the upper level anticyclone pretty much over 96L for the next 5 days.

GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
200 mb streamline
Given the improvement in the moisture field, and premise of the upper level anticyclone moving in tandem with the disturbance, and an increase in the maximum wind velocity, should this trend continue, I will not rule out the formation of a tropical depression within the next 24-36 hours.

The NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook has increased the probability of cyclone development during the next 5 days to 80%.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
two_atl_5d0

The 18Z intensity models forecast still indicate the reliable intensity models bring this to hurricane strength within the next 48-72 hours.  IF all of the conditions I mentioned pan out, I cannot rule this out at the moment.

ATCF 18Z INTENSITY FORECAST
96L 18Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE

Based on current steering, and forecast steering maps, the 18Z dynamic model track guidance looks decent, and I prefer a track combined with the TVCN, TVCC, and HWFI, but will be subject to change should a discernible LLC become established and models can latch onto it. 

ATCF 18Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
96L 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
I have to work tomorrow, so I cannot promise when my next update will occur…but I will continue to monitor INVEST 96L for any significant changes, and will update when I can.

Elsewhere, analysis of the global models still indicate the models are in fair agreement of developing another low near the Cape Verde islands within the next 5-6 days.  This will remain to be seen, however with models indicating this, it would appear they are “hinting” at a slight increase of tropical activity.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L SPECIAL EVENING UPDATE…ISSUED AUG. 17, 2015…8:25 P.M. EDT

  1. Monty says:

    Indeed Dellamom…you have TD 4

    I’m sure Storm’s all over it.

  2. dellamom says:

    Okay, I think I answered my own question. The following is a Special Message from the NHC from 18 August 2015, 14:14 UTC which appears above the map of the eastern Atlantic with the red X:
    “NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Four in the east-central tropical Atlantic at 11 AM EDT.”
    So I guess we have TD#4.

  3. dellamom says:

    Storm, I note that the NHC site has just a red X without a hatched circle at the site of the disturbance, they are calling it Disturbance #1, and they state that even a slight improvement would result in a tropical depression later today (from the 8:00 am. report). My question is: Why would it only have a red X and not a hatched circle if they think it will develop today? Curious Donnas want to know!

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Well, maybe this system will hang-on and make it.

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