TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 17, 2015…11:30 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  HIGH (70%)

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 96L continues to move toward the west at near 15 mph.  Based on the 12Z ATCF FTP information, the center has moved just slightly to the south. The following is the latest information on INVEST 96L:

Location: 9.7°N 31.3°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb/29.85 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

Earlier morning satellite loop imagery indicated INVEST 96L had become better organized as far as convection.  Recent loop images indicate convection has diminished over the past 2-3 hours, however counterclockwise circulation appears a little stronger this morning.  Based on earlier satellite imagery, this may be why the NHC increased the cyclone formation probability to HIGH (70%)

NHC GRAPHICAL 5 DAY TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
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NOAA SSD INVEST 96L FLOATER LOOP IMAGERY
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NOAA SSD CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
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RAMSDIS/CIRA METEOSAT 4 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
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Albeit at the moment, I am not as excited as the NHC to warrant a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation, I am not willing to write this system off as of yet.

Based on my analysis of water vapor loop imagery, TPW (Total Precipitable Water), and SAL (Saharan Air Layer) [African Dust], it appears there has been only a slight entertainment of dry air to the system.  Although the robust thunderstorm activity has diminished, it appears the tight circulation has recovered somewhat nicely over the past few hours.  Being that this system appears to be compact, there COULD be enough moisture present on the south side to maybe balance things out.  IF 96L can continue to have intermittent bursts of convection, the possibility exists that the system could “mix out” enough dry air to survive.  Water Vapor and Dust satellite imagery shows the majority of dust and dry air confined to the northern side of the system.  It is noted though,  that the moisture field around the system has diminished.  INVEST 96L does have three items in it’s favor however…SST’s of 30C at it’s present location, and 29C downstream, moderate to high TPW surrounding the system, and favorable upper level winds.

INVEST 96L TPW IMAGE
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INVEST 96L SST IMAGE
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INVEST 96L WIND SHEAR IMAGE
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INVEST 96L DRY AIR IMAGE
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EUMETSAT DUST CHANNEL IMAGE (MAGENTA COLOR INDICATES SAL)
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CATL WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY
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At the time of analysis, an upper level anticyclone was established over INVEST 96L, and the most recent wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates this upper level feature to move in tandem with INVEST 96L, with very low zonal shear values indicated.

GFS ZONAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST
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My take right now on INVEST 96L is, yes, it has taken in some dry air, however another factor has come into play…satellite loop imagery indicates another “low” right next to 96L, with another skirting the African coast, just east of the Cape Verde islands.  So in effect, 96L is basically competing for energy with these other two features at the moment.  Against my better judgment at the moment, until I can see how 96L handles the current environment, I am going to side with the NHC, an err on the side of caution, in the premise conditions may improve for 96L, and call for the possibility of a Tropical Depression within the next 72-96 hours.  Four of the Intensity Models now bring this to hurricane status over the next 5 days.  This should still be considered preliminary at the moment, however one more model is in agreement.  The four, which are considered the more accurate are LGEM, SHIP, DSHIP, and HWFI. 

ATCF 12Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
96L 12Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
The following link explains the model abbreviations:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering models, INVEST 96L should continue on pretty much a westerly track during the next 48-72 hours, before feeling a weakness in the subtropical ridge, which is forecast to be located approximately near 30N;70W.  Based on this, I concur with the 12Z Dynamic Guidance, and am partial to the TVCN-TVCC models, and on the south side of the NHC projection.

ATCF 12Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
96L 12Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

I have to work tomorrow, so I cannot promise when my next update will occur…but I will continue to monitor INVEST 96L for any significant changes, and will update when I can.

Elsewhere, analysis of the global models still indicate the models are in fair agreement of developing another low near the Cape Verde islands within the next 5-6 days, with the ECMWF being the more bullish.  This will remain to be seen, however with models indicating this, it would appear they are “hinting” at a slight increase of tropical activity.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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