SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: MEDIUM (60%)
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
Enter into the eastern Atlantic MDR, Tropical Disturbance INVEST 96L which was designated in FTP data, early yesterday. As of the 18Z (2:00 P.M. EDT) ATCF FTP data, the following information was available on INVEST 96L:
Location: 10.0°N 28.2°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb/29.85 in
Max sustained: 25 mph
Satellite loop imagery indicates the structure of 96L has improved over the past few hours, with an expansion in the cloud, and moisture field (based on water vapor loop imagery). Consolidation appears to be mainly around the mid levels, based on AMSU surface wind data, and RGB satellite loop imagery. Based on the 18Z AMSU data, there is currently no closed low level circulation. Excellent rotation is noted in the satellite loop images however.
The recent wind shear map from CIMSS, did indicate an upper level anti-cyclone established above he system, just east of the approximate center. The current streamline flow is providing somewhat of a divergent pattern, hence the apparent expansion of the cloud field.
The current SST and TPW maps indicate SST’s of 27-28C lie ahead of the system, with decent TPW surrounding the disturbance. Upon analysis of water vapor loop images, a small amount of dry air is noted toward the west of the INVEST, however both loop images tend to indicate an expansion of the moisture field around the disturbance. IF this trend can continue, dry air may only become slight inhibiting factor in possible development.
The most recent wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates, based on projection from the current forward speed, that the disturbance could remain in an environment where upper level winds may remain (albeit not optimal) more conducive than what we have seen, with the upper level anticyclone just lagging slightly behind the system. This would tend to still provide some upper level outflow to the system. The GFS zonal shear map does indicate zonal shear should remain below non conducive levels during the next 3-5 days.
Based on the premise that these indications are accurate, I have to agree at this time with the NHC probability of cyclone development of MEDIUM (60%) during the next 5 days.
IF favorable conditions prevail, and a low level circulation becomes established, I cannot rule out a tropical depression within the next 72 hours.
Preliminary intensity guidance indicates the more accurate models bring this to hurricane strength in about 72 hours. At this time, I feel this is a bit overdone, seeings there is a lack of a well defined surface circulation.
INVEST 96L is currently moving toward the west at around 15 mph, and based on forecast steering maps, this motion should continue during the next 72 hours. At the moment, the GFS forecast steering map indicates pretty much a due west course over the next 5 days…however there is an indicated weakness in the subtropical ridge in about 96-120 hours out, from 00Z this evening. This could have a tendency to impart more of a WNW track motion, which coincides with the NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. However, this weakness is located fairly far west, near 30N;70W. IF 96L is weak enough, the slim possibility could exist for the system to miss the weakness. So, based on forecast steering, and analysis of the global models, I concur with the limited 18Z Dynamic Model guidance track of the GFNI. This will of course change, if and when a low level circulation becomes established for the modeling to pick up on.
ALL global models are indicating an increase in activity in the EATL next week, with another low developing near the Cape Verde islands. This remains to be seen.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS