SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good evening everyone!
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level winds are not favorable for any development over the Gulf of Mexico at this time.
NOAA TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
A rather compact tropical wave is noted just along the African west coast. Based on analysis of RAMSDIS/CIRA METEOSAT 4 Satellite loop imagery, the structure has deteriorated over the past few hours, and convection diminishing at the moment.
The most recent wind shear product from CIMSS indicated an upper level anti-cyclone over the wave. The current GFS wind shear forecast indicates this upper level feature is forecast to move toward the west, in tandem with the wave. This would provide a more favorable upper level wind pattern for development. However, water vapor imagery in satellite loops, and SAL imagery, indicates the environment in both the mid and upper levels is fairly dry surrounding this wave. So, even with premise of moderately favorable upper level winds, dry air is still going to be an inhibiting factor for development of this wave. I will be looking at this when get time this week, however I am really not expecting any development from this, unless conditions change significantly.
Elsewhere, the global models are each indicating in their own way, possible development of a weak, closed low pressure area IVO the Cape Verde islands in approximately 5-6 days. This could come to fruition, as the current shear forecast indicates upper level winds to become somewhat more favorable. However, models do not show anything making a complete journey across the Atlantic or into the Caribbean, as they all pretty much weaken the forecast entity.
Based on my analysis this evening, and reflecting on conditions over the past 3 weeks or so, the only thing precluding development, is dry air. We are going to have to see the EATL moisten up, or see a large enough area surrounding these waves with moisture, in order to see sustainability. The longer range GFS wind shear forecast does indicate upper level winds should become pretty favorable toward the end of the month, with the development of a rather expansive upper level anticyclone. IF SST Anomalies can continue to warm in the EATL/MDR, this could be achieved, however it appears it could be a slow process. The following SST anomaly maps do indicate some slight warming has occurred.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS