TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 14, 2015…9:20 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good evening everyone!

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Gulf of Mexico.  Upper level winds are not favorable for any development over the Gulf of Mexico at this time.

NOAA TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
avn-l

A rather compact tropical wave is noted just along the African west coast.  Based on analysis of RAMSDIS/CIRA METEOSAT 4 Satellite loop imagery, the structure has deteriorated over the past few hours, and convection diminishing at the moment.

RAMSDIS/CIRA METEOSAT 4 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

The most recent wind shear product from CIMSS indicated an upper level anti-cyclone over the wave.  The current GFS wind shear forecast indicates this upper level feature is forecast to move toward the west, in tandem with the wave.  This would provide a more favorable upper level wind pattern for development.  However, water vapor imagery in satellite loops, and SAL imagery, indicates the environment in both the mid and upper levels is fairly dry surrounding this wave.  So, even with premise of moderately favorable upper level winds, dry air is still going to be an inhibiting factor for development of this wave.  I will be looking at this when  get time this week, however I am really not expecting any development from this, unless conditions change significantly.

CIMSS EATL WIND SHEAR
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NORTH ATLANTIC WATER VAPOR LOOP
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SAL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES MID/UPPER LEVELS
wvmid-2

wvhi-2

Elsewhere, the global models are each indicating in their own way, possible development of a weak, closed low pressure area IVO the Cape Verde islands in approximately 5-6 days.  This could come to fruition, as the current shear forecast indicates upper level winds to become somewhat more favorable.  However, models do not show anything making a complete journey across the Atlantic or into the Caribbean, as they all pretty much weaken the forecast entity.

Based on my analysis this evening, and reflecting on conditions over the past 3 weeks or so, the only thing precluding development, is dry air.  We are going to have to see the EATL moisten up, or see a large enough area surrounding these waves with moisture, in order to see sustainability.  The longer range GFS wind shear forecast does indicate upper level winds should become pretty favorable toward the end of the month, with the development of a rather expansive upper level anticyclone.  IF SST Anomalies can continue to warm in the EATL/MDR, this could be achieved, however it appears it could be a slow process.  The following SST anomaly maps do indicate some slight warming has occurred.

SST ANOMALY MAP AUG. 03, 2015
anomw.8.3.2015

AUG. 13, 2015
anomw.8.13.2015

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 14, 2015…9:20 P.M. EDT

  1. Thanks, Sr. Chief,
    I keep my eyes on the NHC site and appreciate that you extend their predictions a little bit farther into the future. A day here or a day there could make a big difference in our preparedness, so I feel better when your forecasts agree with others. Our philosophy has been, for the last 41 years, if things start to look questionable, just board up and leave The Island. Thanks to the Good Lord, that has worked and we have not had to pack-up for quite a while! Keep up the good work. We really appreciate it!

    That reminds me that I have not visited your donation site for a while. I’ll try it now. My web address has changed, I hope it works!

    Port Aransas Beach Bums.

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