SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
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*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
Still very quiet in the tropics at the time of my analysis. An area of cloudiness still persists in the GOMEX, however analysis of the RAMSDIS floater with buoy data does not indicate any shift in the surface wind field, and no falling pressures.
RAMSDIS FLOATER LOOP
An area of disturbed weather has pretty much remained stationary just at the west coast of Africa. A definite counter-clockwise circulation is noted in the clouds, however, there has been no organization over the past 48 hours. The METEOSAT floater from CIRA indicates there is an area of drier air directly ahead of this feature, based on buoy data indicating surface dewpoints in the mid and upper 70’s just at the coast, and slightly eastward, where the bulk of this weather is located, and dewpoints in the upper 60’s IVO 23W.
The current wind shear map from CIMSS indicates a moderate to strong upper level anticyclone remains present over this disturbed weather, and the recent available shear forecast map from the GFS Ensembles indicates upper level winds may remain somewhat favorable for development. However, we’ve seen the same scenario now for the past 3-4 waves, in where they dissipate once crossing over into the MDR area with cooler SST Anomalies, and drier air. I am not expecting development of this, although since it has been persistent, I will continue to monitor it, as convection has begun to sprout up intermittently, and a recent increase in TPW is noted in the CIRA TPW animation. This still may not be enough to keep a well moistened environment around the feature, however looking at the current 5 day animation of water vapor imagery, it is possible we may be seeing a trend in moisture increasing, ever so slowly (?).
Analysis of global models indicate no development during the next 5 days. Thereafter, models appear to “hint” at a possible increase of activity within the range of 7-10 days in the forecast period. The 06Z run of the GFS had shown a closed low near the Cape Verde islands at around 174 hours out, and ending up with 3 closed lows in succession at 384 hours. Now, 384 hours equates to 16 days out. This I have to discount. As of the typing of my synopsis, the 12Z GFS has backed off on the first low, and shows a weak closed low opening into a wave. Given the hostile conditions we’ve seen in the Atlantic, development may not occur, however, one cannot ignore that we are coming closer in climatology to the climatological uptick. In addition, all of the remaining global models are “hinting” at something at 7-10 days out, with the FIM8 and NAVGEM being the early outliers at 120 hours. The ECMWF begins to show a decent low at 240 hours, just approaching the African coast, with the CMC developing a low. I will be looking for model consistency from here on out, as we have seen a lot of erroneous solutions over the past few weeks. As a forecaster, what this signals to me is, the models may be ‘”seeing” some subtle changes coming up in the pattern.
The mid to long range GFS does indicate a surge in TPW during this time, with increased RH at 850 mb, but still somewhat limited RH at 500 mb.
Both the GFS Ensembles and CMC wind shear forecasts seem to be trending toward improving upper level winds over the next 7-10 days. Even though this may occur, we need to see an improvement in moisture in at least the mid levels of the atmosphere. I do believe at the moment, this COULD occur, however it will be a very, very slow process.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS