SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
This is my first day off since Tuesday.
When does the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season begin? (Just kidding).
Upon analysis of both satellite loop imagery, and the Global Models, There is really nothing exciting that catches this forecasters eye.
I am looking, at a weak low associated with another front, just off the OBX area. Models tend to suggest this low could become better defined over the next 24 hours. However, it is forecast to remain phased with the current 500 mb trof off the U.S. east coast, and should remain baroclinic in nature.
SSEC GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
Elsewhere, a rather large tropical wave is spinning just on the African continent at around 12N;14W. The structure of this wave is rather poor, and images from the SAL satellite site indicates drier air than what we’ve seen in both mid and upper levels, directly ahead of this feature. As of time of this analysis, a fairly strong upper level anticyclone was located over the area. However, easterly shear is strongest near the coast, and out to 20W for the next 48 hours. Even if upper level winds become more favorable, the stable, dry environment out ahead and surrounding this feature, would almost dictate non development.
Dry air is the dominating factor right now over the Tropical Atlantic, as noted in water vapor loop imagery. Although we have seen the past couple of waves with favorable, non shear conditions, it appears the ongoing problem is this: Looking at the most recent SST anomaly map, we can still see much warmer anomalies just at the African coast, and extending out to 30W. If you remember the past few waves, the circulation and structure had looked pretty impressive, until the waves hit the area near 30W…then…they just fizzled. This has been due to the cooler SST anomalies from 30W, westward. Even though the anomalies near 30W are 0.5C above average, what Mother Nature and the waves see, are the “big” difference between these anomalies, and the anomalies that are 1.5-2.0C above average. I know it doesn’t seem like much, as far as numbers, however, there is a great difference in the energy potential in the anomalies.
SST ANOMALY MAP
Models are not really showing anything over the next 7 -10 days. However, by day 10 in the forecast period, the GFS does develop a low in the EATL, east of the Cape Verde islands, moving it WNW and wakening it. By 336 hours, it develops another low, rather large, just ESE of the Cape Verde islands. The other major Global Models hint of this as well, at 240 hours out, with the ECMWF at the moment, extending the west African monsoon circulation to the south of the Cape Verde islands.
Based on this, and the current OLR anomaly forecast, which would tend to lend credence to climatology, we could see a slight ramp up in activity beginning the last 10 days of this month. While conditions at that time are pretty much unknown (until about 7 days out), which leads to difficulty in predicting any sustainability of an developing low, we still may see an increase in organized convective activity.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS