TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 08, 2015…12:15 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

This is my first day off since Tuesday.

When does the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season begin? (Just kidding).

Upon analysis of both satellite loop imagery, and the Global Models, There is really nothing exciting that catches this forecasters eye.

I am looking, at a weak low associated with another front, just off the OBX area.  Models tend to suggest this low could become better defined over the next 24 hours.  However, it is forecast to remain phased with the current 500 mb trof off the U.S. east coast, and should remain baroclinic in nature.

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP
avn-l

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
latest_east_vis_conus

Elsewhere, a rather large tropical wave is spinning just on the African continent at around 12N;14W.  The structure of this wave is rather poor, and images from the SAL satellite site indicates drier air than what we’ve seen in both mid and upper levels, directly ahead of this feature.  As of time of this analysis, a fairly strong upper level anticyclone was located over the area.  However, easterly shear is strongest near the coast, and out to 20W for the next 48 hours.  Even if upper level winds become more favorable, the stable, dry environment out ahead and surrounding this feature, would almost dictate non development.

RAMSDIS/ CIRA METEOSAT 4 LOOP
tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater

SAL MID LEVEL / UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGES
wvmid

wvhi

Dry air is the dominating factor right now over the Tropical Atlantic, as noted in water vapor loop imagery.  Although we have seen the past couple of waves with favorable, non shear conditions, it appears the ongoing problem is this:  Looking at the most recent SST anomaly map, we can still see much warmer anomalies just at the African coast, and extending out to 30W.  If you remember the past few waves, the circulation and structure had looked pretty impressive, until the waves hit the area near 30W…then…they just fizzled.  This has been due to the cooler SST anomalies from 30W, westward.  Even though the anomalies near 30W are 0.5C above average, what Mother Nature and the waves see, are the “big” difference between these anomalies, and the anomalies that are 1.5-2.0C above average.  I know it doesn’t seem like much, as far as numbers, however, there is a great difference in the energy potential in the anomalies.

GOES NORTH ATLANTIC WATER VAPOR LOOP
wv-l

SST ANOMALY MAP
anomw.8.6.2015

Models are not really showing anything over the next 7 -10 days.  However, by day 10 in the forecast period, the GFS does develop a low in the EATL, east of the Cape Verde islands, moving it WNW and wakening it.  By 336 hours, it develops another low, rather large, just ESE of the Cape Verde islands.  The other major Global Models hint of this as well, at 240 hours out, with the ECMWF at the moment, extending the west African monsoon circulation to the south of the Cape Verde islands.

Based on this, and the current OLR anomaly forecast, which would tend to lend credence to climatology, we could see a slight ramp up in activity beginning the last 10 days of this month.  While conditions at that time are pretty much unknown (until about 7 days out), which leads to difficulty in predicting any sustainability of an developing low, we still may see an increase in organized convective activity.

OLR ANOMALY FORECAST
MJO.forecast.olr

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 08, 2015…12:15 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm.. We should all remember, that even in a “slow” season, it takes only “one” “Andrew” to make big trouble. Thanks for keeping watch!

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