SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: MEDIUM (40%)
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
At 10:55 a.m. EDT, the NHC in Miami issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook on INVEST 95L. 95L was the area the other day I mentioned just offshore of the northern Florida Big Bend region. The surface low has been moving toward the NE, and is now located almost along the coast near Myrtle Beach SC. The NHC has increased the probability of cyclone development to MEDIUM (40%) during the next 5 days.
NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (5 DAY)
Based on my analysis of the most current satellite loop imagery, the center of 95L is just beginning to enter the water. Current satellite motion suggests more of a ENE motion over the past few hours, vice directly NE. This would disagree with the current dynamic model steering guidance at the moment. Based on the forecast steering maps, more of a ENE path seems it may be in order for a brief period, then more NELY. Model guidance may have to shift right somewhat. This is to be expected however, given the system is extremely shallow right now. Vorticity is strongest from the surface, to only 850 mb, and is just beginning to show at 700 mb.
Based on what could be the motion with more of a brief, easterly component, 95L may make it out over the water far enough to begin some slow organization. Based on a combination of the 12Z track guidance, and forecast steering, my analysis of the current wind shear forecast indicates a very brief window (approximately 6 hours) for 95L to become organized, and possibly have a slim probability at making minimal tropical storm status, as wind shear relaxes briefly, and a small upper level anticyclone develops briefly over the system. So, the short of it is, we have somewhat of a chance to see our next named system, or even possibly a subtropical entity as this merges with a frontal system.
I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes in forecast parameters.
Elsewhere, a tropical wave is just entering the EATL off the African coast, near latitude 10.0N, longitude 17.0W. The wave is moving very slowly to the west at the moment. Analysis of water vapor imagery indicates the wave has a better moisture field surrounding it, than did the previous 3 waves. A definitive cyclonic circulation is noted in satellite loop imagery.
Currently, the wave is located over sufficiently warmer waters. As it continue west however, cooler anomalies are present, but have warmed slightly during the past 72 hours. Based on my analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS, and current wind shear forecast from the GFS, upper level winds are somewhat conducive for further slow organization at the moment, however become less favorable during the next 4-5 days. Albeit there is more moisture for it to work with, the upper level winds forecast doesn’t support that conducive of an environment right now. I will continue to monitor the area during the next 5 days for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS