TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 28, 2015…5:05 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  MONITORING

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

Given that the current El Nino is rivaling the 1997 event, and that the vertical instability is well below normal in the Atlantic, along with the premise of continued shear over the Caribbean sea, I have decided to revise my seasonal forecast, which is noted above.

Still relatively quiet in the tropics today.  Showers and thunderstorms in the GOMEX, and east of the Florida are associated with an elongated trof of low pressure, associated with a decaying stationary front.  This weather has brought copious amounts of rainfall to the west Florida area over the past 96 hours.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l

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Based on my analysis of water vapor imagery, and upper level winds, I am not expecting development of either area.  Upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for development over the next 5-7 days.  There is just a little too much dry air over the central GOMEX.  Vertical instability is well below normal at the moment.  This most likely has occurred due too the strong ridge of high pressure centered over the AK area (noted in water vapor imagery).

EASTERN U.S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP
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Elsewhere, analysis of visible satellite loop imagery indicates a tropical wave just off the African coast  has become slightly better organized.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGE
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RAMSDIS METEOSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CIRA)
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Upper level winds at the moment are out of the east, and only marginal at the moment, however the flow is producing somewhat of an upper divergent pattern.  The recent wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds to remain marginal over the next 7 days.  Analysis of water vapor imagery, both mid and upper level indicate a little better moisture field around the wave, although SAL is out ahead of it.

EATL WIND SHEAR MAP
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EATL UPPER DIVERGENCE
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Based on current and forecast steering, this wave may remain quasi stationary during the next 36 – 48 hours, before making a slow motion toward the west or WNW.  At this time, I do not believe anything significant will become of this, however if the current structure continues to improve, and the wave remains within the monsoon trof, the possibility could exist for some very slow development.  IF this were to occur, I do not see it surviving a trek across the Atlantic.

I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes during the next 48 -72 hours.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 28, 2015…5:05 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. I see the NHC has given that wave in the EATL a 10% chance of developing. That’s not strong odds.

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