SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: MONITORING
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site. The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
Given that the current El Nino is rivaling the 1997 event, and that the vertical instability is well below normal in the Atlantic, along with the premise of continued shear over the Caribbean sea, I have decided to revise my seasonal forecast, which is noted above.
Still relatively quiet in the tropics today. Showers and thunderstorms in the GOMEX, and east of the Florida are associated with an elongated trof of low pressure, associated with a decaying stationary front. This weather has brought copious amounts of rainfall to the west Florida area over the past 96 hours.
Based on my analysis of water vapor imagery, and upper level winds, I am not expecting development of either area. Upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for development over the next 5-7 days. There is just a little too much dry air over the central GOMEX. Vertical instability is well below normal at the moment. This most likely has occurred due too the strong ridge of high pressure centered over the AK area (noted in water vapor imagery).
Elsewhere, analysis of visible satellite loop imagery indicates a tropical wave just off the African coast has become slightly better organized.
RAMSDIS METEOSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CIRA)
Upper level winds at the moment are out of the east, and only marginal at the moment, however the flow is producing somewhat of an upper divergent pattern. The recent wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds to remain marginal over the next 7 days. Analysis of water vapor imagery, both mid and upper level indicate a little better moisture field around the wave, although SAL is out ahead of it.
EATL UPPER DIVERGENCE
Based on current and forecast steering, this wave may remain quasi stationary during the next 36 – 48 hours, before making a slow motion toward the west or WNW. At this time, I do not believe anything significant will become of this, however if the current structure continues to improve, and the wave remains within the monsoon trof, the possibility could exist for some very slow development. IF this were to occur, I do not see it surviving a trek across the Atlantic.
I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes during the next 48 -72 hours.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS