TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 26, 2015…1:05 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

The NHC has dropped the area I have been monitoring across the Florida peninsula area.

Analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning with frontal overlay, and the NHC TAFB Surface Analysis map does indicate a 1012 – 1010 mb low now in the GOMEX, just off the coast of the Florida Big Bend area.  Based on current steering, this should push slowly toward the SW over the next 24 hours.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-gomexl

rgb-GOMEXl

I am going to monitor this area, mainly to keep from becoming extremely bored with forecasting, however analysis of current and forecast wind shear indicates NELY shear on the order of around 20 knots, as well as plenty of dry air noted in water vapor loop imagery.  Based on these factors, I see why the NHC has dropped it from the TWO.  I am not expecting development from this, unless there are any significant changes that occur.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR FROM CIMSS
wg8shr

GOMEX WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY
wv-l

Analysis of the global models, once again, do not indicate any tropical development during the next 7 – 10 days.  One item of note is, the NCEP EMC Ensemble and Multi Model Ensembles indicate approximately a 40% probability of cyclogenesis in the far eastern Atlantic within the next 5 to 10 days, as weak tropical waves continue to move off the African coast.

NCEP EMC CYCLOGENESIS TRACKING
genprob.4enscon.2015072606.altg.120_240
EATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-lEATL

RAMSDIS (CIRA) METEOSAT LOOP
tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater

Albeit RAMSDIS imagery shows a wave which appears to be slightly better organized this afternoon, prior to earlier this morning,  based on analysis of current and forecast wind shear products, upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for development over that area.  By days 7 -10, albeit an upper level anticyclone is forecast near this area, upper level winds will be marginal at best.  I will be monitoring the ITCZ for signs of development, however I still do not look for anything significant to come of this, as vertical instability is still well below normal for this time of the season.  Second, if anything were to survive and become a named system, either once above 15N, or entrance into the Caribbean, upper level winds would not support it.  The Atlantic right now, is just not very favorable for development.  In fact, although there are waves near Africa, the area is under some easterly shear.

EATL WIND SHEAR FROM CIMSS
wm7shr

I will be checking things on and off, and won’t be able to have another update until sometime Tuesday.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 26, 2015…1:05 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Storm, it appears that the weather off the Florida coast is spinning. Is this a problem?

  2. dellamom says:

    Good morning, Storm. I am really, really glad I did not see your Saturday posts on Saturday. My mother’s memorial Mass was that day and I had a house full of people afterwards, and I’d have been anxious about the weather. I am glad, though, that you report even on days when I cannot check, because I go back to see what’s been going on. I am sorry the forecasting is boring, but believe from your various synopses that things will pick up later in the season. I hope for your sake that I believe correctly, and for mine that it’s just something exciting to track that doesn’t grow too big. Have a blessed week, my friend.

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