SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
The NHC has dropped the area I have been monitoring across the Florida peninsula area.
Analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning with frontal overlay, and the NHC TAFB Surface Analysis map does indicate a 1012 – 1010 mb low now in the GOMEX, just off the coast of the Florida Big Bend area. Based on current steering, this should push slowly toward the SW over the next 24 hours.
I am going to monitor this area, mainly to keep from becoming extremely bored with forecasting, however analysis of current and forecast wind shear indicates NELY shear on the order of around 20 knots, as well as plenty of dry air noted in water vapor loop imagery. Based on these factors, I see why the NHC has dropped it from the TWO. I am not expecting development from this, unless there are any significant changes that occur.
Analysis of the global models, once again, do not indicate any tropical development during the next 7 – 10 days. One item of note is, the NCEP EMC Ensemble and Multi Model Ensembles indicate approximately a 40% probability of cyclogenesis in the far eastern Atlantic within the next 5 to 10 days, as weak tropical waves continue to move off the African coast.
Albeit RAMSDIS imagery shows a wave which appears to be slightly better organized this afternoon, prior to earlier this morning, based on analysis of current and forecast wind shear products, upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for development over that area. By days 7 -10, albeit an upper level anticyclone is forecast near this area, upper level winds will be marginal at best. I will be monitoring the ITCZ for signs of development, however I still do not look for anything significant to come of this, as vertical instability is still well below normal for this time of the season. Second, if anything were to survive and become a named system, either once above 15N, or entrance into the Caribbean, upper level winds would not support it. The Atlantic right now, is just not very favorable for development. In fact, although there are waves near Africa, the area is under some easterly shear.
I will be checking things on and off, and won’t be able to have another update until sometime Tuesday.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS