SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (10%)
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
UPDATE…2:10 P.M. EDT…NHC has shifted the location in the area of interest in their 2:00 p.m. Tropical Weather Outlook Update:
Currently monitoring the area SE of the NC/SC border area a few hundred miles off the SEUS coast.
Analysis of lower level steering and surface winds do indicate a broad area of low pressure located near 30.0N;78.0W.
Global models have been indicating probable development on and off now, for the past few days, and satellite loop overlays do indicate a 1011 mb low associated with the stationary front.
However, we have somewhat of a complex pattern. The NHC 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook indicates a LOW (10%) probability of cyclone formation, much further toward Bermuda.
Analysis of global model solutions indicate models to be in complete disagreement on development and location. The ECMWF indicates more of a solution in concurrence with the NHC graphic, indicating only a broad, weak low IVO Bermuda, with the CMC indicating a 986 mb subtropical low down the road, which initiates close to the area off the SEUS coast at the moment. The GFS only indicates a broad, elongated trof of low pressure off the SEUS coast. There is also disagreement between the Tropical Cyclone formation/genesis modeling, in that the NOAA SSD TCFP page has bumped up probability off the SEUS coast slightly, with the NCEP EMC Cyclogenesis Ensemble modeling indicating a high probability over, or just west of the Florida peninsula. Given these noted discrepancies, I am going to have to go with real time monitoring on this, which is most likely choice based on this. Can’t really pinpoint a likely area with model solutions being garbage at the moment. However, based on satellite information, the most probable area appears to be of the SEUS coast at the moment. Based on the current wind shear forecast, I have to consider the CMC an outlier at the moment indicating a possible Category One system.
NOAA SSD TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY (TCFP)
NCEP EMC ENSEMBLES CYCLOGENESIS PROBABILITIES
The current shear forecast from the GFS does indicate upper level winds to relax over a portion off the SEUS coast within the next five days.
At the moment, steering currents are weak. Current forecast steering maps indicate the area could remain somewhat stationary during the next 24 – 36 hours before moving off toward the ENE. I will continue to monitor this area.
As far as off the Florida west coast, just as a gesture of caution, I am going to monitor that area as well. I will know more once satellite loop imagery has had a chance to update further today, but it appears the thunderstorm complex that dumped over 5″ of rain at my station in the past 24 hours, may have some slight rotation left behind over a portion of the FL. peninsula, based on the last frame of the satellite loop imagery. Based on the wind shear forecast above, upper level winds are forecast to relax over the area, however the 200 mb streamline pattern does not appear all that favorable in the forecast.
GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
Elsewhere, Tropical Waves continue to spin within the ITCZ. Albeit the TCFP from NOAA indicates a bump up in formation probability, The current wind shear forecast, combined with extremely below average vertical instability over the Atlantic, would dictate against any development in the region. Based on my analysis, I really do not expect any development in the MDR during the next 7 – 10 days. I will continue to monitor the Atlantic though for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS