TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OFF SEUS…ISSUED JUL. 25, 2015…12:35 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  LOW (10%)

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

UPDATE…2:10 P.M. EDT…NHC has shifted the location in the area of interest in their 2:00 p.m. Tropical Weather Outlook Update:

two_atl_5d0

Currently monitoring the area SE of the NC/SC border area a few hundred miles off the SEUS coast.

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
EASTavn-l

Analysis of lower level steering and surface winds do indicate a broad area of low pressure located near 30.0N;78.0W. 

PSU E-WALL LOW LEVEL STEERING WINDS
over_18

Global models have been indicating probable development on and off now, for the past few days, and satellite loop overlays do indicate a 1011 mb low associated with the stationary front.

However, we have somewhat of a complex pattern.  The NHC 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook indicates a LOW (10%) probability of cyclone formation, much further toward Bermuda.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
two_atl_5d0

Analysis of global model solutions indicate models to be in complete disagreement on development and location.  The ECMWF indicates more of a solution in concurrence with the NHC graphic, indicating only a broad, weak low IVO Bermuda, with the CMC indicating a 986 mb subtropical low down the road, which initiates close to the area off the SEUS coast at the moment.  The GFS only indicates a broad, elongated trof of low pressure off the SEUS coast.  There is also disagreement between the Tropical Cyclone formation/genesis modeling, in that the NOAA SSD TCFP page has bumped up probability off the SEUS coast slightly, with the NCEP EMC Cyclogenesis Ensemble modeling indicating a high probability over, or just west of the Florida peninsula.  Given these noted discrepancies, I am going to have to go with real time monitoring on this, which is most likely choice based on this.  Can’t really pinpoint a likely area with model solutions being garbage at the moment.  However, based on satellite information, the most probable area appears to be of the SEUS coast at the moment.  Based on the current wind shear forecast, I have to consider the CMC an outlier at the moment indicating a possible Category One system.

ECMWF
ECMWF 96
GFS
GFS.84
CMC
CMC 72

CMC 174

NOAA SSD TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY (TCFP)
al_rCUMP_048
NCEP EMC ENSEMBLES CYCLOGENESIS PROBABILITIES
genprob.aeperts.2015072506.altg.000_120
The current shear forecast from the GFS does indicate upper level winds to relax over a portion off the SEUS coast within the next five days.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
GFS.shear
GFS.shear120

At the moment, steering currents are weak.  Current forecast steering maps indicate the area could remain somewhat stationary during the next 24 – 36 hours before moving off toward the ENE.  I will continue to monitor this area.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MAP
wg8dlm1

As far as off the Florida west coast, just as a gesture of caution, I am going to monitor that area as well.  I will know more once satellite loop imagery has had a chance to update further today, but it appears the thunderstorm complex that dumped over 5″ of rain at my station in the past 24 hours, may have some slight rotation left behind over a portion of the FL. peninsula, based on the last frame of the satellite loop imagery.  Based on the wind shear forecast above, upper level winds are forecast to relax over the area, however the 200 mb streamline pattern does not appear all that favorable in the forecast.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
vis-l

GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
GFS 200 streamlines
Elsewhere, Tropical Waves continue to spin within the ITCZ.  Albeit the TCFP from NOAA indicates a bump up in formation probability, The current wind shear forecast, combined with extremely below average vertical instability over the Atlantic, would dictate against any development in the region.  Based on my analysis, I really do not expect any development in the MDR during the next 7 – 10 days.  I will continue to monitor the Atlantic though for any significant changes.

EATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
EATLavn-l

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OFF SEUS…ISSUED JUL. 25, 2015…12:35 P.M. EDT

  1. greg goodman says:

    Mr storm thankyou for the update.Mr storm it looks like this hurricane season has a few tricks up it sleeves.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, WOW , you really got “dumped” on!! 5″ of rain!!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s