TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 21, 2015…12:35 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: MARGINAL
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

Another boring morning in the tropics!

TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP WIDE VIEW
avn-l

Analysis of the global models this morning indicates the ECMWF has backed off on it’s previous solution of possible development off the Florida west coast, and the SEUS coast.  It does place a very weak low with one closed isobar off the east coast, but drops it in less than 24 hours.  In fact, models are pretty much garbage from this morning.  Looking at them in analysis, I see 4 different models, with 4 different looks to the forecast pattern.  Not much help.

In my analysis of the forecast surface analysis map from WPC, it was a little more helpful in that it is displaying a weaker stationary front, with a low (one closed isobar) that dissipates, near the Big Bend area of Florida.

WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS FORECAST DAY 6
9mhwbg_conus

Based on my analysis this morning, this is definitely going to be one of those wait and see situations as to what happens, if and when the front stalls.  Real-time forecasting will be the precedence here.

Elsewhere, tropical waves, not that numerous, continue to roll off Africa, and fizzle.  Albeit noted in the most recent SST Anomaly map, anomalies have increased off the African coast and Cape Verde islands, there is an ongoing problem with a lack of sufficient relative humidity in the mid levels of the atmosphere.  If you click the humidity graphic, and move the forecast frame by frame using the “next” feature, you’ll see the forecast indicates limited RH values at the 500 mb level.  It does increase closer toward months end, however only extends outward to around 30W longitude.  This lack of moisture is one of the reasons we are seeing the waves dissipate.

CURRENT OPERATIONAL SST ANOMALY MAP
anomw.7.20.2015

GFS 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST
gfs_africa_000_500_rh_ht

Another reason for this is, instability over the Tropical Atlantic is still well below average.  This could upswing somewhat though, as the current NAO index forecast indicates at least another 10 days into a negative NAO pattern, along with minimal African dust at the present.  If the NAO does go as indicated, and the SAL remains minimal, we could see more warming in the SST Anomalies in the EATL and a portion of the MDR.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY INDEX
ts_al_tat_THDV

NAO INDEX FORECAST
nao.sprd2

SAL SATELLITE IMAGE
truecol

Again, I am not really expecting any “decent” development out of waves exiting off the African coast for the remainder of this month.  In about 7-10 days, there is forecast to be a fairly decent upper level anticyclone over the EATL, however, any waves that might be able to take advantage of this, would not make it through the Caribbean, as given this El Nino pattern, wind shear is forecast to remain in place during the remainder of this month.

This current El Nino does have a possibility of strengthening, as the recent weather pattern over the western Pacific, especially with strong tropical cyclone activity, has caused the SOI to tank strongly negative, indicating a pattern of stronger westerly winds across the Equatorial Pacific.  This has allowed for the sub-surface sst anomalies to cover a greater area from the South American coast, westward, and become warmer.

PACIFIC OCEAN EQUATORIAL SUB SURFACE ANOMALIES
sub_surf_mon

I’m beginning to get the feeling, this could be another back weighted season.

We will have to continue to monitor the W. Caribbean and GOMEX, in the event anything “sneaks” into those areas, given the moderate to high Ocean Heat Content.

OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
ohc_aQG3_latest_natl

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 21, 2015…12:35 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Looks like a lot of rain over FLA the next few days coming up. And some models hinting again of tropical development sometime next week off the SE coast. I’m sure Storm will be on top of the situation.

  2. Texbam says:

    Thanks Storm. You mention the possibility of a back weighted season. If the El Niño strengthens as you also mentioned may occur, would this not pretty much kill the Cape Verde season for this year? Taking a eastern Caribbean cruise in the latter half of September so I have a keen interest in the remainder of the season. Also, could you repeat what prior years this season is analogous with. Thanks again!

    • I’m not looking for much out of the Cape Verde area. Vertical Instability over the Atlantic is well below normal. You need vertical instability (lift) in the atmosphere to get strong thunderstorms to develop.

      As far as the analog years I used, this is from my seasonal outlook:

      Based on my analysis of the most recent forecast update regarding the onset of an El Nino episode, I have come up with 5 analog years in reference to the ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) that closely resemble the “forecast trend” vice actual ONI Value, albeit a couple of the analog year values are close. These analog years are 1957, 1972, 1982, 1991, and 1997.

  3. Mac says:

    Thanks Storm! I wrote a comment a few days ago about some of the graphics not showing in the email edition of your synopsis that I receive. Today, they all show in the email. I’ve not changed anything on my rig, so I’m not sure what’s going on. Again, when I went to your website – when the graphics didn’t show in the email edition – all graphics did show properly. Sure enjoying the slow season so far! Now if you could just send a strong cold front down to S.E. Louisiana, we’d all be very appreciative (heat index warnings for the past 3 days)!!!

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