TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 20, 2015…8:45 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

Back once again to a quiet tropics.  Waves continue to exit the African continent, however are still falling apart as they enter the Atlantic.

NOAA ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY WIDE VIEW
avn-l

EATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
EATLavn-l

I’ve noticed some concern on some of the weather groups I post in, about possible development very close to the west coast of Florida, and another area off the SEUS coast, east of the Florida northern east coast.  This would be in response to a surface stationary front and trof split at 500 mb.

Analysis of the global models indicates a trof split to occur approximately around this upcoming weekend, mainly Sunday.  I have just picked 2 of the models in order to cut down on graphics tonight.  The ECMWF and GFS had been more bullish on developing weak lows both off the SEUS coast, and just near shore off of the west coast of Florida.  However, both have backed off the solutions from earlier, but do indeed show a trof split, which extends down across the Florida Peninsula on Sunday.

GFS
GFS
ECMWF
ECMWF
Based on this, current forecast wind shear maps, and position of the forecast stationary front, it would appear to me that the majority of the energy from the trof split will be off the SEUS coast.  Analysis of a couple different surface analysis forecast maps would support my current thinking of off the SEUS coast, as the position of the frontal system doesn’t exactly pose a favorable position at the very tail end, as one indicates it lies very close to shore near the Florida Panhandle, and the other surface map from WPC indicates the tail end draped over MS., AL., and GA.  Based on this combination, it would seem more likely if development ere to occur, it would be off the SEUS coast.  This is not to say that a piece of energy could not make it to the Gulf, but at the moment of analysis, the best probability is off the SEUS coast.

WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS FORECAST 6 DAYS
9mhwbg_conus

The current wind shear value forecast from the GFS also indicates that even though wind shear relaxes both over the eastern GOMEX for a couple of days, and over the SEUS coastal area, the more optimal, albeit only somewhat favorable area, lies IVO the SEUS coastal and offshore waters.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
GFS.shear

Given the SST’s off the east coast, development cannot be totally ruled out, however it could be slow to get started.  I really didn’t notice anything in the models that excite me as far as definite development, but given the premise of the very warm SST’s, relaxed upper level winds, and a surface low depicted with a stationary front, it would be a good idea to monitor these areas as the weekend approaches, especially off the SEUS coast.

ATLANTIC SST MAP
usatlant.c

Forecast steering indicates at the supposed time of any low beginning, steering currents will be weak in both areas.  However, IF anything odes evolve off the east coast, steering suggests an eventual motion toward the ENE.

I will monitor these areas  beginning this weekend, and will update when possible

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 20, 2015…8:45 P.M. EDT

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Thank you Storm!

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