TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 18, 2015…1:55 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  LOW (0%)

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

Analysis of late morning satellite loop imagery indicates INVEST 93L has for the most part, dissipated.  Thunderstorm and shower activity has diminished greatly overnight, as the system encounters increased wind shear, which has onset earlier than previously forecast.  Wind shear values are now on the order of 15-20 knots.  Based on the diminished state of the system, the NHC has decreased the probability for Tropical Cyclone development to 0% during the next 5 days.

INVEST 93L FLOATER SATELLITE IMAGE (93L IN THE FAR LEFT)
avn0-laloFLOAT

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP
wg8shr

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
two_atl_5d0

Based on the current wind shear forecast, I do not anticipate any further development of this area.  Based on the shear forecast, we may pretty much encounter this for the remainder of July, which will be mentioned again further in the synopsis.

Satellite loop imagery also indicates another well defined wave with concentrated clouds and shower activity, located just past 30W longitude.  The main axis is a little further north than the cloudiness and showers, based on the NHC TAFB 06Z Surface Analysis map.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l

EATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
EATLavn-l

RAMSDIS FLOATER LOOP IMAGERY (COURTESY OF CIRA)
tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater

Currently, wind shear in the path is below 15 knots, and a very small upper level anticyclone is noted directly over this area, based on the CIMSS EATL wind shear map.

CIMSS EATL WIND SHEAR MAP
wm7shr

This wave is currently moving in a general westward direction, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 72 hours, before more of a WNW motion may occur.  This COULD be low enough in latitude to miss the forecast weakness in the sub-tropical ridge, however chances at the moment would indicate a gain in latitude after 72 hours.  This will all depend on its motion during the next 24 hours.

The current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds to remain somewhat favorable over the next 24 hours, then marginal thereafter.  At around 72 hours out, there is a slight possibility upper level winds may become more conducive at around 50W, as shown in the 200 mb streamline forecast map.

GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE MAPS
GFS 200 streamlines

One thing I did note, the forecast has called for these upper level anticyclones to develop on and off 3 -4 days apart, but not maintaining long enough for waves to take full advantage of the conditions.  There is a discrepancy in the GFS wind shear forecast from the USF site, and the streamlines in the GFS forecast map.  So, for the moment,  am going to go with marginal upper level winds regarding this wave, until I can analyze further runs.

I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes.

Scattered showers and thunderstorm activity continue over a portion of the NE GOMEX, associated with a surface trof, and a 1016 mb low centered over the Big Bend area of the Florida peninsula.  Upper level winds are not conducive for development, and will only be marginal in about 48-72 hours.  I do not expect any development of this, however I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
GOMEXavn-l

I will continue to keep an eye around the ITCZ, and waves that may catch my interest, as we get into Aug.  As I stated about the wind shear pattern for July, the forecast doesn’t call for much change at the moment.  IF the shear forecast holds true, then Aug. is showing some very different changes.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 72 HOURS
GFS.shear72
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 348 HOURS
GFS.shear348

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 18, 2015…1:55 P.M. EDT

  1. Mac says:

    Thanks Storm. Just opened your last two newsletter synopsis’. Very few of the map graphics show up in the email. If I click on the blank space, IE opens to the webpage properly. And, they all show properly on this webpage. Using Outlook 2007 on WIN7 Pro 64bit. This is the first time I’ve encountered this problem.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Looking like a definite El Nino year.

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