SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (10%)
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good evening everyone!
Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates INVEST 93L doesn’t look as good as it did yesterday evening during analysis. Based on close up water vapor imagery, there may be some slight dry air intrusion. The NHC has lowered the probability of tropical cyclone development to 10%.
Based on satellite loop imagery, and the 18Z ATCF FTP information, INVEST 93L has been moving just slightly north of west between 06Z to the 18Z report.
Based on forecast steering layers maps, and dynamic model guidance, I expect this motion to continue for at least the next 48 hours. Soon thereafter, a weakness is noted in the subtropical ridge, and INVEST 93L should begin a more definite WNW motion occurs. However, based on the latitude the system is centered at, and the forecast steering maps, I have to agree currently with the 18Z dynamic model track guidance TVCN / TVCC
Based on this, there could be more of a track westward, before getting pulled northward, and given this, I am on the southern edge of the NHC track graphic in the 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.
Analysis of the current wind shear map from CIMSS still indicates a small upper level anticyclone over INVEST 93L. This should allow for either the system to remain status quo, or allow for some further slow organization. Given that the moisture field this evening is not as intact as it was, any further organization will be slow to occur.
Based on my analysis of the 18Z GFS wind shear forecast, upper level winds should remain somewhat conducive for slow organization, for at least the next 48 hours. Thereafter, upper level winds become less favorable for development, and if and when INVEST 93L begins moving out of the ITCZ, and above 15N, it will encounter westerly wind shear. The forecast intensity models have come into better agreement this evening, with the more accurate bring INVEST 93L to possible tropical depression status, to barely tropical storm. Given the current lack of organization, and the relatively short window of opportunity, I have to agree with the NHC probability at the moment.
I will continue to monitor this INVEST over the next 48 hours for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, cloudiness and thunderstorms are noted in the GOMEX, and are associated with a surface trof over the west Florida Peninsula. Although I do not expect any development from the area, there is a 1014 mb low over the extreme northern Panhandle I will monitor, as this may enter the GOMEX. Development should not occur based on the current wind shear forecast.
The GFS brings another tropical wave off the African coast in about 6 – 7 days, developing another weak low. I will be looking at his possibility as we get further into next week.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS