SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (20%)
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good evening everyone!
Given the questions and concerns from some of the weather groups I belong to on Facebook, I decided to work late and provide an outlook.
A large area of convection, associated with a Tropical Wave and associated 1012 mb low is currently located in the CATL near 35W longitude, and is currently embedded within the ITCZ. This wave is moving slowly to the west at around 8 – 10 kts. Based on the current update of forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion, or a slight north of west motion, to continue during the next 36 – 48 hours. At approximately 66 – 72 hours out in the forecast period from 00z the steering flow changes toward a more WNW pattern, as a weakness in the subtropical ridge develops near 20N latitude and 57W-60W longitude. This should impart more of a NW motion on the system, which is basically depicted in the NHC 5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Should this steering pattern verify, there would not be any threat to the U.S. Mainland. Dynamic Model track guidance was not available at the time of analysis.
CLICK ON THE GRAPHICS FOR LOOPS AND MAGNIFICATION
NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
Based on analysis of the recent update to the wind shear map from CIMSS, upper level winds at the moment are better than marginal, in that an upper level anticyclone is over the system, which can be seen in the streamlines near 10N;38W, in the far right of the graphic.
Analysis of the 18Z run of the GFS, indicates upper level winds may remain fairly favorable over the next 48 hours, prior to become a little less favorable thereafter. The GFS does maintain an upper level anticyclone over the CATL during the next 60 hours, over the area where this wave will traverse. However, in order for the system to survive and develop after that,it would pretty much have to remain on a west to north of west motion. Once this wave/low gains latitude, and begins to pass 12N-15N, it will encounter increasing wind shear in its path.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
Based on my analysis of everything, as long as this low is within the ITCZ, and upper level winds remain fairly favorable as forecast, I expect further slow development during at least the next 48 hours. With this embedded in the ITCZ, it is unknown if this would become a depression, given that any surrounding convection would be competing for energy from the wave. I do believe we will see a little more organization however, and it could take on an impressive look before upper level winds become less favorable. I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes to the pattern over the next 48 hours, however my next update may not be until late Sunday afternoon, or early that evening. It is of note however, the initial intensity guidance does bring this to T.S. strength.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS