TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 15, 2015…2:50 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

Another sleepy day in the tropics.  Analysis of satellite loop imagery doesn’t really indicate anything that should spark interest.

ATLANTIC WIDE VIEW SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l

EATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
EATLavn-l

Analysis of the global models (ECMWF, GFS and CMC) are not indicating any type of development during the next 7 – 10 days.

Now, this is far out in the forecast period, and accuracy is usually out the window.  However the GFS is indicating a strong tropical wave to develop into a tropical low over the Cape Verde Islands by July 30th.  I am not putting very much credence in this, as we know how well accuracy is that far in advance, and the GFS having the tendency to show convective feedback and ghosts storms.  It is hard to tell about the GFS sometimes however, in that we have seen ghosts storms from the model, however keep in mind, it did nail ANA I believe, 12 days out in the forecast period, and albeit it dropped BILL on and off, the GFS initialized him at around 10 days out in the period.

GFS FORECAST ANALYSIS 12Z RUN
GFS.360
GFS.372
GFS.384
Even though the probability of this is slim, the time frame in the forecast period is when we do begin to look toward that area.  Based on the recent slight warming of SST anomalies just off the African coast and Cape Verde Islands, a strong enough wave could be sustained for a slight period.  With the forecast premise of the NAO to remain pretty negative, at least for the next 7 days, there could be some more slight warming of SST’s over that region.  Thereafter, the NAO is forecast to shoot back positive, which means a strengthening of the trade winds over the Atlantic.

LATEST OPERATIONAL SST ANOMALIES
anomnight.7.13.2015

NAO INDEX FORECAST
nao.sprd2

The 200 mb streamline forecast does indicate the supposed wave working off an upper level anticyclone, centered almost at the coast, and extending out past the Cape Verde Islands.  Based on the positioning of this feature, divergence would be present aloft, albeit not optimal.  The caveat to this however, would be if a low did become organized, it would not survive a long trip across the MDR.  Any entity would soon encounter strong westerly shear as it approached the Caribbean Sea.  With the current El Nino having strengthened, this shear zone could be the story for a while.  However, as we delve closer into Aug., generally the last 10 days, and onward to Sep., some breaks in the shear can occur.  For the most part, I am not expecting anything really as far as a Cape Verde season, however it only takes one, to find that ”sweet spot”, wherever it may occur, as in BETSY of 1965, which became a Category 4 Hurricane prior to landfall (27AUG – 13SEP).

GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
GFS 200 streamlines
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
GFS.shear
BETSY 1965
betsytrack

I work tomorrow and Friday, and will be off for the weekend.  I do not know when my next update will be.  However should another surprise pop up, I will try to post when I am able.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 15, 2015…2:50 P.M. EDT

  1. grannyMS says:

    Thank you, Storm!

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm!

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. My Aunt was in Betsy as it slammed MSY. She has told me many stories.

  4. greg goodman says:

    Thankyou mr storm for the update.

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