SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
Another sleepy day in the tropics. Analysis of satellite loop imagery doesn’t really indicate anything that should spark interest.
Now, this is far out in the forecast period, and accuracy is usually out the window. However the GFS is indicating a strong tropical wave to develop into a tropical low over the Cape Verde Islands by July 30th. I am not putting very much credence in this, as we know how well accuracy is that far in advance, and the GFS having the tendency to show convective feedback and ghosts storms. It is hard to tell about the GFS sometimes however, in that we have seen ghosts storms from the model, however keep in mind, it did nail ANA I believe, 12 days out in the forecast period, and albeit it dropped BILL on and off, the GFS initialized him at around 10 days out in the period.
GFS FORECAST ANALYSIS 12Z RUN
Even though the probability of this is slim, the time frame in the forecast period is when we do begin to look toward that area. Based on the recent slight warming of SST anomalies just off the African coast and Cape Verde Islands, a strong enough wave could be sustained for a slight period. With the forecast premise of the NAO to remain pretty negative, at least for the next 7 days, there could be some more slight warming of SST’s over that region. Thereafter, the NAO is forecast to shoot back positive, which means a strengthening of the trade winds over the Atlantic.
NAO INDEX FORECAST
The 200 mb streamline forecast does indicate the supposed wave working off an upper level anticyclone, centered almost at the coast, and extending out past the Cape Verde Islands. Based on the positioning of this feature, divergence would be present aloft, albeit not optimal. The caveat to this however, would be if a low did become organized, it would not survive a long trip across the MDR. Any entity would soon encounter strong westerly shear as it approached the Caribbean Sea. With the current El Nino having strengthened, this shear zone could be the story for a while. However, as we delve closer into Aug., generally the last 10 days, and onward to Sep., some breaks in the shear can occur. For the most part, I am not expecting anything really as far as a Cape Verde season, however it only takes one, to find that ”sweet spot”, wherever it may occur, as in BETSY of 1965, which became a Category 4 Hurricane prior to landfall (27AUG – 13SEP).
GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
I work tomorrow and Friday, and will be off for the weekend. I do not know when my next update will be. However should another surprise pop up, I will try to post when I am able.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS