SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (20%)
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
The low I had mentioned which was picked up by the ECMWF and previously by the GFS, has materialized east of Cape Hatteras. The NHC has designated this low as INVEST 92L, and has designated a LOW (20%) probability of Sub-tropical or Tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days.
Based on my analysis, satellite loop imagery shows a broad, disorganized area of low pressure, associated with a frontal system, making this baroclinic in nature.
As of the 12Z ATCF FTP information, the following was available on INVEST 92L:
Location: 35.1°N 73.8°W
Moving: E at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb / 29.88 in
Max sustained: 25 mph
INVEST 92L is under westerly shear of 20-25 kts at the moment, and analysis of the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds to remain unfavorable for development during the next 48 hours. The chance may exist however of some further SLIGHT organization, given the upper level winds and the system are currently moving in the same direction, however it has to contend with dry air to its west. Looking at the overall picture, probability points to a slim chance at subtropical development. Based on what I am currently seeing, this will most likely remain a baroclinic system.
INVEST 92L is moving toward the east at the moment, and I expect this motion to continue, probably through today, before making a turn to the NE, then being accelerated NE by a deep layer trof…this is based on my analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps. Based on analysis of these maps, I agree with the 12Z Dynamic Model Guidance, and favor the TVCN / TVCC guidance tracks.
Given the global models indicate a quick exit over the next 48 hours, there should be minor, if any, affect on the U.S. This system will mainly be a threat to shipping interests. I will continue to monitor INVEST 92L for any significant changes, however I may not be back on until Wed., depending on my work schedule.
Elsewhere, showers and cloudiness over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico are in association with a mid to upper level low, associated with a TUTT. Based on current vorticity maps and RGB satellite loop imagery, there is no surface reflection noted, and development of this area is not expected.
Cloudiness and showers off the coast of Panama should move into the Pacific during the next 24-36 hours.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS