TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / INVEST 92L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 12, 2015…1:05 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  LOW (20%)

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

The low I had mentioned which was picked up by the ECMWF and previously by the GFS, has materialized east of Cape Hatteras.  The NHC has designated this low as INVEST 92L, and has designated a LOW (20%) probability of Sub-tropical or Tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
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Based on my analysis, satellite loop imagery shows a broad, disorganized area of low pressure, associated with a frontal system, making this baroclinic in nature.

INVEST 92L SATELLITE FLOATER LOOP IMAGERY
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92Lrgb0-lalo

As of the 12Z ATCF FTP information, the following was available on INVEST 92L:

Location: 35.1°N 73.8°W
Moving: E at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb / 29.88 in
Max sustained: 25 mph

INVEST 92L is under westerly shear of 20-25 kts at the moment, and analysis of the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds to remain unfavorable for development during the next 48 hours.  The chance may exist however of some further SLIGHT organization, given the upper level winds and the system are currently moving in the same direction, however it has to contend with dry air to its west.  Looking at the overall picture, probability points to a slim chance at subtropical development.  Based on what I am currently seeing, this will most likely remain a baroclinic system.

INVEST 92L is moving toward the east at the moment, and I expect this motion to continue, probably through today, before making a turn to the NE, then being accelerated NE by a deep layer trof…this is based on my analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps.  Based on analysis of these maps, I agree with the 12Z Dynamic Model Guidance, and favor the TVCN / TVCC guidance tracks.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MAP
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ATCF 12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
92L 12Z DYNAMIC MODEL

Given the global models indicate a quick exit over the next 48 hours, there should be minor, if any, affect on the U.S. This system will mainly be a threat to shipping interests.  I will continue to monitor INVEST 92L for any significant changes, however I may not be back on until Wed., depending on my work schedule.

Elsewhere, showers and cloudiness over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico are in association with a mid to upper level low, associated with a TUTT.  Based on current vorticity maps and RGB satellite loop imagery, there is no surface reflection noted, and development of this area is not expected.

NOAA WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-lWATL

Cloudiness and showers off the coast of Panama should move into the Pacific during the next 24-36 hours.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / INVEST 92L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 12, 2015…1:05 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you all for your kind words. I have been off-site for a few days. but apparently came back on just in time to see an invest. Storm, please give your fiancee a hug for me. Hospice was a blessing for the whole family.

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