TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 11, 2015…12:30 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:  SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

Analysis this morning indicates no real change in the current pattern over the next 10 days, and satellite imagery shows the tropics are once again quiet.

NOAA ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY WIDE VIEW
avn-l

EATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
EATLavn-l

Beginning closer to home, the GFS has dropped its solution of a possible coastal low, however the ECMWF has picked up on it.  The NCEP EMC Cyclogenesis Ensembles still indicate an 80% probability of a coastal development during the next 48 hours.  Should this occur, based on the model animation of the ECMWF, the low would move quickly toward the NE.  Reviewing wave and wind models this morning, the quick motion to the NE seems to indicate there should not really be any problems for the eastern seaboard.  The ECMWF is now indicating, the beginning of a possible sub-tropical cyclone associated with a trof split in about 9 days.  Based on forecast motion, this would only be a threat to shipping.  I will continue to monitor this over the next 48-72 hours.

The ECMWF also indicates a possibility of subtropical development west of Bermuda, in association with a trof split, and moving it quickly off the the NE.  If this does occur, it should only affect shipping areas.

ECMWF 48 HOUR FORECAST
ECMWF 48

ECMWF 216/240 HOUR FORECAST
ECMWF 216
ECMWF 240

NCEP EMC CYCLOGENESIS ENSEMBLES FORECAST

genprob.aeperts.2015071106.altg.000_048
The most recent Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability map from NOAA has indicated a low prob. of Tropical Cyclone Formation in the CATL.  I am ruling this out, given the fact SST’s at 15N latitude do not support this, in addition to nothing being seen in satellite imagery that would be in the area around that time frame for anything to try and develop.

TCFP MAP
al_rTCFP_048

NOAA/NESDIS CURRENT SST MAP
global_small.c
One item to note however, the current NAO Index forecast indicates a negative NAO pattern to remain pretty much through the end of this month.  Analysis of the pressure pattern of the 3 major global models, ECMWF, GFS, and CMC tend to verify this, with the surface pressure of the subtropical ridge averaging 1023 mb.  With a weaker ridge, the trade winds slow down, allowing for heat to build in the deep tropics, as well as stopping upwelling of cooler water off the African coast, and reducing the evaporative process.  A stronger evpaorative process is detrimental in that it cools the atmosphere, rather than when weak trades are present, allowing for the process to focus this in more of a column, allowing for the process of latent heat of condensation to take over.  I did note in yesterdays synopsis, that SST anomalies have increased slightly off the African coast, and ever so slightly in the eastern portion of the MDR.  This addition of heat has allowed the vertical instability in the Tropical Atlantic to increase over the past few days.  IF this trend remains in place, and should it continue into Aug. we may have to pay a little more attention to the Atlantic.  Although should the wind shear forecast hold true, an Atlantic wave would have to be strong enough to survive wind shear in the Caribbean, and hold together enough to make it to any favorable conditions that may be present during that time. As I’ve said previously, this is going to be pretty much a watch and wait season, and more likely based more on real time forecasting, vice picking out probable development areas.

NAO INDEX FORECAST
nao.sprd2

TROPICAL ATLANTIC THDV
ts_al_tat_THDV
Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s