SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
Analysis this morning indicates no real change in the current pattern over the next 10 days, and satellite imagery shows the tropics are once again quiet.
Beginning closer to home, the GFS has dropped its solution of a possible coastal low, however the ECMWF has picked up on it. The NCEP EMC Cyclogenesis Ensembles still indicate an 80% probability of a coastal development during the next 48 hours. Should this occur, based on the model animation of the ECMWF, the low would move quickly toward the NE. Reviewing wave and wind models this morning, the quick motion to the NE seems to indicate there should not really be any problems for the eastern seaboard. The ECMWF is now indicating, the beginning of a possible sub-tropical cyclone associated with a trof split in about 9 days. Based on forecast motion, this would only be a threat to shipping. I will continue to monitor this over the next 48-72 hours.
The ECMWF also indicates a possibility of subtropical development west of Bermuda, in association with a trof split, and moving it quickly off the the NE. If this does occur, it should only affect shipping areas.
ECMWF 216/240 HOUR FORECAST
NCEP EMC CYCLOGENESIS ENSEMBLES FORECAST
The most recent Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability map from NOAA has indicated a low prob. of Tropical Cyclone Formation in the CATL. I am ruling this out, given the fact SST’s at 15N latitude do not support this, in addition to nothing being seen in satellite imagery that would be in the area around that time frame for anything to try and develop.
NOAA/NESDIS CURRENT SST MAP
One item to note however, the current NAO Index forecast indicates a negative NAO pattern to remain pretty much through the end of this month. Analysis of the pressure pattern of the 3 major global models, ECMWF, GFS, and CMC tend to verify this, with the surface pressure of the subtropical ridge averaging 1023 mb. With a weaker ridge, the trade winds slow down, allowing for heat to build in the deep tropics, as well as stopping upwelling of cooler water off the African coast, and reducing the evaporative process. A stronger evpaorative process is detrimental in that it cools the atmosphere, rather than when weak trades are present, allowing for the process to focus this in more of a column, allowing for the process of latent heat of condensation to take over. I did note in yesterdays synopsis, that SST anomalies have increased slightly off the African coast, and ever so slightly in the eastern portion of the MDR. This addition of heat has allowed the vertical instability in the Tropical Atlantic to increase over the past few days. IF this trend remains in place, and should it continue into Aug. we may have to pay a little more attention to the Atlantic. Although should the wind shear forecast hold true, an Atlantic wave would have to be strong enough to survive wind shear in the Caribbean, and hold together enough to make it to any favorable conditions that may be present during that time. As I’ve said previously, this is going to be pretty much a watch and wait season, and more likely based more on real time forecasting, vice picking out probable development areas.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS