SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
Click on the graphics for satellite loop images and magnification.
An area of deep convection is noted in satellite imagery this morning, just off the coast of Panama. This is associated at the southern end of a tropical wave axis. Based on current wind shear and forecast steering, development of this area is not expected, and I ma forecasting this to move over into the EPAC.
Cloudiness and scattered showers near the Bahamas are associated with a mid – upper level low. There is no surface reflection of this feature, and I do not expect development to occur.
Elsewhere, analysis of the global models suggests no tropical development during the next 7 – 10 days.
Having analyzed a few forecast items this morning, tropical waves appear to be a little more numerous near the west African coast. The problem is however, once they leave the hot continent, they fizzle over the cooler SST’s currently affecting the MDR. Analysis of forecast wind shear, through the GFS model, indicates upper level winds are forecast to become somewhat favorable for development from 10N, southward, and remain as such for approximately 5 – 7 days, beginning around 66 hours into the forecast period from 06Z this morning, with a fair semblance of an upper level anticyclone overspreading the EATL and CATL during this time. Of note, I cannot remember an instance of this occurring this early in the season. Generally, an upper level anticyclone will become established over the area and remain for about 2 weeks, in Sep. This is one reason why the peak of the season generally occurs in Sep. However, albeit this may occur, I really do not expect anything to become of these African waves, given the well below average instability in the Tropical Atlantic / MDR region. Hand in hand with this, it is going to be difficult for the MJO to enter and remain in phases 8 and 1 for any period of time, in order to support any tropical development. In simple terms, the MJO is partially maintained where atmospheric instability is the greatest. One of the items which supports atmospheric instability over the oceans, is where the warmest sst’s are occurring. Given the anomalies, you can pretty much ascertain where the greatest instability is located, so I really don’t see the dynamic modeling bringing the MJO into octants 8 and 1 in the index any time soon (which is what the forecast indicates). For instability to increase in the Tropical Atlantic, we would have to see the SST anomalies pretty much switch. Now, this is not to say a wave could not slip into one of the more favored areas closer to home, and develop, but it would have to be awful strong to survive. One other scenario could be formation along the ITCZ, however, any feature that tried to come north of 10N, at least for this month, would have to cross a fairly strong shear zone, at least according to the shear forecast during the next 10 – 14 days.
Now, I will have to keep close tabs on the MJO entities, as there ARE some discrepancies regarding the forecast of the MJO. Currently, the index forecast shows the MJO in phase 7, which would indicate the WPAC. However, the 200 mb velocity potential map, which is near real time, would tend to indicate the MJO a little further east (upward motion denoted by the green contours), which would be closer to octant 8. The OLR anomaly forecast indicates upward motion toward mid month over the GOMEX and Caribbean areas. As a rule of thumb, the MJO Index Forecast is considered the more accurate of the modeling. So, right now, it will all be a wait and see, to be able to find out which of these does materialize. But as I stated previous, it’s going to be hard to get the MJO over in our area.
200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL (NEAR REAL TIME)
I will be watching the ITCZ over the next 2 weeks, however climatology would dictate lack of development for the Atlantic this month, and current conditions would still tend to favor close in development.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS