TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 08, 2015…12:45 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:  SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

Click on the graphics for satellite loop images and magnification.

An area of deep convection is noted in satellite imagery this morning, just off the coast of Panama.  This is associated at the southern end of a tropical wave axis.  Based on current wind shear and forecast steering, development of this area is not expected, and I ma forecasting this to move over into the EPAC.

Cloudiness and scattered showers near the Bahamas are associated with a mid – upper level low.  There is no surface reflection of this feature, and I do not expect development to occur.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l

Elsewhere, analysis of the global models suggests no tropical development during the next 7 – 10 days.

Having analyzed a few forecast items this morning, tropical waves appear to be a little more numerous near the west African coast.  The problem is however, once they leave the hot continent, they fizzle over the cooler SST’s currently affecting the MDR.  Analysis of forecast wind shear, through the GFS model, indicates upper level winds are forecast to become somewhat favorable for development from 10N, southward, and remain as such for approximately 5 – 7 days, beginning around 66 hours into the forecast period from 06Z this morning, with a fair semblance of an upper level anticyclone overspreading the EATL and CATL during this time.  Of note, I cannot remember an instance of this occurring this early in the season.  Generally, an upper level anticyclone will become established over the area and remain for about 2 weeks, in Sep.  This is one reason why the peak of the season generally occurs in Sep.   However, albeit this may occur, I really do not expect anything to become of these African waves, given the well below average instability in the Tropical Atlantic / MDR region.  Hand in hand with this, it is going to be difficult for the MJO to enter and remain in phases 8 and 1 for any period of time, in order to support any tropical development.  In simple terms, the MJO is partially maintained where atmospheric instability is the greatest.  One of the items which supports atmospheric instability over the oceans, is where the warmest sst’s are occurring.  Given the anomalies, you can pretty much ascertain where the greatest instability is located, so I really don’t see the dynamic modeling bringing the MJO into octants 8 and 1 in the index any time soon (which is what the forecast indicates).   For instability to increase in the Tropical Atlantic, we would have to see the SST anomalies pretty much switch.  Now, this is not to say a wave could not slip into one of the more favored areas closer to home, and develop, but it would have to be awful strong to survive.  One other scenario could be formation along the ITCZ, however, any feature that tried to come north of 10N, at least for this month, would have to cross a fairly strong shear zone, at least according to the shear forecast during the next 10 – 14 days.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC INSTABILITY INDEX
ts_al_tat_THDV

RECENT SST ANOMALY MAP
anomw.7.6.2015

EATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-lEATL

EUMETSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
EUMETSAT_MSG_IR108Color-all

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 72 HOURS
850200shear12

Now, I will have to keep close tabs on the MJO entities, as there ARE some discrepancies regarding the forecast of the MJO.  Currently, the index forecast shows the MJO in phase 7, which would indicate the WPAC.  However, the 200 mb velocity potential map, which is near real time, would tend to indicate the MJO a little further east (upward motion denoted by the green contours), which would be closer to octant 8.  The OLR anomaly forecast indicates upward motion toward mid month over the GOMEX and Caribbean areas.  As a rule of thumb, the MJO Index Forecast is considered the more accurate of the modeling.  So, right now, it will all be a wait and see, to be able to find out which of these does materialize.  But as I stated previous, it’s going to be hard to get the MJO over in our area.

MJO INDEX FORECAST GEFS
NCPE_phase_21m_full
MJO INDEX FORECAST ECMWF
ECMF_phase_51m_full
FORECAST OLR ANOMALIES
MJO.forecast.olr

200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL (NEAR REAL TIME)
am_ir_monthly_60E_1
I will be watching the ITCZ over the next 2 weeks, however climatology would dictate lack of development for the Atlantic this month, and current conditions would still tend to favor close in development.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 08, 2015…12:45 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    So sorry dellamom. my feeling are exactly what Monty and Greg said. Prayers to you and your family.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I have not been onsite for several days. My mom passed yesterday after 2 months in hospice. It was a blessing for her and for us that she was finally taken and that, despite the length of her decline, she did not suffer. We evacuated her to my house or (for Katrina) out of state with my sister’s family and me for every hurricane over the past three decades, and I dreaded having a hurricane come when she was not in condition to be evacuated. Your reports and long-outlook forecasts gave me peace of mind and one less thing to worry about. And I knew that if there was something to worry about, your reports would give me crucial lead-time I needed. Thank you for being there for all of us, Storm.

    • Greg Goodman says:

      I am sorry dellamom.I lost my dad a little over 2 years ago.my prayers go out to you and your family.

    • Monty says:

      Sorry to hear Dellamom. I lost my final grandparent last year. Hope things are as well as possible. Prayers are with you.

    • dellamom, I am so sorry for your loss. I lost my Father back in 2000, and was not able to fly home for his funeral. Hospice people are a blessing. My fiancee is a Hospice nurse. My prayers for you and your family.

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