TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 05, 2015…3:30 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:  ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
money-dog-300x300

Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

Still very quiet in the tropics.

Analysis of the global models, and NCEP EMC Cyclogenesis Ensembles indicates tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Click on the graphics for satellite loop images and magnification.

NOAA ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (WIDE VIEW)
avn-l

The current NAO Index forecast still calls for the NAO to remain fairly negative through the middle of the month, and into the start of the 3rd week of Jul.  This could allow for the Atlantic to warm somewhat, save any heavy SAL outbreaks.  A slight increase in SST anomalies off the west African coast is noted in the current SST anomaly map, as compared to last week.

NAO INDEX FORECAST
nao.sprd2

A couple of items that caught my eye in this afternoons analysis, is the increase in SST’s in the GOMEX, and northern Bahamas, northward along the U.S. east coast, and the updated Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential fields map, commonly known as OHC (Ocean Heat Content). SST’s are 28-30C over the GOMEX, with 31C noted off the west coast of Florida.  SST’s along and off the U.S. eastern seaboard are 27-28C.  These values are enough for a tropical storm to intensify to hurricane status, if all other conditions are favorable.

CURRENT GOMEX SST MAP
gulfmex.c

CURRENT NATL SST
natlanti.c

I have a comparison of TCHP maps of the current, and from a year ago. Areas where the TCHP or OHC is 60 kJ/cm-2 or greater, can cause rapid intensification of a cyclone, and will support a major hurricane, if all other conditions are favorable.

TCHP JUL. 04, 2015
2015185at


TCHP JUL. 04, 2014
2014185at

Now, I am not saying this WILL occur, but this raises a concern for me, given what has been discussed in previous forecast remarks, regarding close in development, or having a well organized tropical wave, or for that matter, a tropical storm making it’s way out of the tropical Atlantic, and traversing these areas.  The danger could exist of having steady or rapid intensification into a hurricane, or, in the case of a hurricane making it into these regions, rapid intensification prior to any possible landfall, should all other conditions be favorable, and these SST’s continue to maintain their current status.

Although I do expect a quiet season, it will be in our best interests to remain extremely vigilant as we head into the months of Aug. and Sept.

I work tomorrow, so I may have another update on Tues.  For now however, I do not see any development in the near future.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 05, 2015…3:30 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm.

  2. greg goodman says:

    Thankyou mr storm for the update.I will keep a weary eye on the tropics.Thankyou for keeping us updated you are a blessing.

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