SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
Still very quiet in the tropics.
Analysis of the global models, and NCEP EMC Cyclogenesis Ensembles indicates tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Click on the graphics for satellite loop images and magnification.
The current NAO Index forecast still calls for the NAO to remain fairly negative through the middle of the month, and into the start of the 3rd week of Jul. This could allow for the Atlantic to warm somewhat, save any heavy SAL outbreaks. A slight increase in SST anomalies off the west African coast is noted in the current SST anomaly map, as compared to last week.
A couple of items that caught my eye in this afternoons analysis, is the increase in SST’s in the GOMEX, and northern Bahamas, northward along the U.S. east coast, and the updated Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential fields map, commonly known as OHC (Ocean Heat Content). SST’s are 28-30C over the GOMEX, with 31C noted off the west coast of Florida. SST’s along and off the U.S. eastern seaboard are 27-28C. These values are enough for a tropical storm to intensify to hurricane status, if all other conditions are favorable.
I have a comparison of TCHP maps of the current, and from a year ago. Areas where the TCHP or OHC is 60 kJ/cm-2 or greater, can cause rapid intensification of a cyclone, and will support a major hurricane, if all other conditions are favorable.
TCHP JUL. 04, 2014
Now, I am not saying this WILL occur, but this raises a concern for me, given what has been discussed in previous forecast remarks, regarding close in development, or having a well organized tropical wave, or for that matter, a tropical storm making it’s way out of the tropical Atlantic, and traversing these areas. The danger could exist of having steady or rapid intensification into a hurricane, or, in the case of a hurricane making it into these regions, rapid intensification prior to any possible landfall, should all other conditions be favorable, and these SST’s continue to maintain their current status.
Although I do expect a quiet season, it will be in our best interests to remain extremely vigilant as we head into the months of Aug. and Sept.
I work tomorrow, so I may have another update on Tues. For now however, I do not see any development in the near future.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS