TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 03, 2015…12:10 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:  ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
money-dog-300x300

Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

The tropics remain very quiet once again thus far.  Several Tropical Waves were noted in the 06Z TAFB Surface analysis map, however there is a lack of any “notable” satellite signature in satellite imagery.

NHC TAFB 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
USA_06Z

TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY WIDE VIEW
avn-l

Analysis of the global models this morning once again indicates, no tropical storm formation over the next 7-10 days.  Upper level winds are not conducive for development, and the shear forecast indicates upper level winds to remain unfavorable during the next 2 weeks.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP FROM CIMSS
wg8shr

The NAO is forecast to remain pretty much negative through mid month, which would tend to allow for slightly more favorable conditions in the sense of weakening trade winds and allowing for heat to build up in the tropics, however, it still appears the MJO Index forecast doesn’t bring the MJO into our area over the next 2 weeks.  There is a discrepancy between the MJO Index forecast, and the OLR anomaly forecast.  Now, if the MJO Index forecast is correct, it would indicate a quiet 2 – 3 weeks ahead.  IF the OLR Anomaly forecast plays out, then we could see some activity around, or just after mid month, as it indicates some strong upward motion from the MJO.  Past forecast experience in comparing these two models, has me leaning toward the MJO Index as the more accurate solution, however I will be monitoring the situation over the next 7 days.

NAO INDEX FORECAST
nao.sprd2

MJO INDEX FORECAST GFS / ECMWF
NCPE_phase_21m_full

ECMF_phase_51m_full

FILTERED OLR FORECAST
MJO.forecast.olr

So, right now, it’s pretty much a wait and see.  Wish I had more to give you, but what can I say…it’s dead out there!

Have a blessed day, and a Happy Fourth of July!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 03, 2015…12:10 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Belated Happy 4th!

  2. grannyMS says:

    Thank you, Storm! I am praying for a quiet season 🙂

  3. amiro says:

    Happy 4th Mr Storm.

  4. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks Storm, dead ain’t such a bad thing. I’m enjoying the quite

  5. Linda Marie Simpson says:

    Storm Walsh,
    Thank you, you are the best…..
    I read your page…you have taught me so much….

    Very much appreciated.
    Linda Simpson!

    Happy 4th!
    God Bless!

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