SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
Cloudiness and showers caught my attention yesterday evening over the Bahamas area. Satellite imagery this morning indicated cloudiness and showers have diminished since yesterday evening. This weather is associated with a weak surface trof depicted by satellite overlay, and being produced by a quasi-stationary front that lies off the SEUS in the Atlantic north and NE of the Bahamas. I wanted to see how this persisted from yesterday evening, into today, given development sometimes will occur at the tail end of a stalled front. However, upper level winds are not favorable for development at this time. Given this, I am not officially monitoring the area, but will have another glimpse of the area should the trof hang out over this area, as the GFS indicates wind shear to relax over the area to 10-15 knots in 66 -72 hours.
Elsewhere, global models do not indicate any development for the GOMEX, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic basins during the next 7-10 days. Based on my analysis of the models, and the forecast for the MJO Index, I cannot ascertain for certain when we may see another chance for development, given discrepancies in different MJO modeling. The dynamic models indicate that by mid July, there could be an almost non existent MJO signal, with modeling indicating a possible very weak signal coming into Octants 8 and 1 near the end of July. Given this, the possibility could exists that we see a fairly quiet July, as during this time of the season, it is fairly difficult to get cyclogenesis without assistance of the MJO.
Given what seems to be an ever changing work schedule, I will be monitoring things on and off, and will always try to have updates during my time off.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS