TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 30, 2015…12:25 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:  SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

Cloudiness and showers caught my attention yesterday evening over the Bahamas area.  Satellite imagery this morning indicated cloudiness and showers have diminished since yesterday evening.  This weather is associated with a weak surface trof depicted by satellite overlay, and being produced by a quasi-stationary front that lies off the SEUS in the Atlantic north and NE of the Bahamas.  I wanted to see how this persisted from yesterday evening, into today, given development sometimes will occur at the tail end of a stalled front.  However, upper level winds are not favorable for development at this time.  Given this, I am not officially monitoring the area, but will have another glimpse of the area should the trof hang out over this area, as the GFS indicates wind shear to relax over the area to 10-15 knots in 66 -72 hours.

NOAA GOES EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK ON IMAGES TO ACTIVATE THE LOOP)
EASTavn-l

RAMSDIS SATELLITE FLOATER LOOP IMAGERY
tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST MAP
GFS.shear

Elsewhere, global models do not indicate any development for the GOMEX, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic basins during the next 7-10 days.  Based on my analysis of the models, and the forecast for the MJO Index, I cannot ascertain for certain when we may see another chance for development, given discrepancies in different MJO modeling.  The dynamic models indicate that by mid July, there could be an almost non existent MJO signal, with modeling indicating a possible very weak signal coming into Octants 8 and 1 near the end of July.  Given this, the possibility could exists that we see a fairly quiet July, as during this time of the season, it is fairly difficult to get cyclogenesis without assistance of the MJO.

ECMWF MJO INDEX FORECAST
ECMF_phase_51m_full
GFS ENSEMBLE MJO INDEX FORECAST
NCPE_phase_21m_full

Given what seems to be an ever changing work schedule, I will be monitoring things on and off, and will always try to have updates during my time off.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 30, 2015…12:25 P.M. EDT

  1. greg goodman says:

    mr storm wish you a happy 4 of july.

  2. Thank all of you, and same to all of you.

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm! Happy 4th of July!! Have a great and safe weekend. 🙂

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks so much Storm. Have a happy 4TH of July weekend, and a safe one, you and your whole family and friends!–Also, love that RAMSDIS Floater Loop you posted of the SE US coast and Atlantic, so clear a picture!

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