TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 27, 2015…12:50 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:  ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

I haven’t updated the past couple of days, as my schedule has been LONG, and had to help my son with some personal business.

Based on the 06Z NHC TAFB Surface Analysis map, Tropical Waves were located near 63W, 48W, and 30W.  The wave that was located near 30W, has moved to near 40W, and displays some slight cyclonic curvature.  I do not expect any development from this wave, given dry air and wind shear in the path.  This wave should move over South America within the next 48-72 hours.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES (CLICK TO RUN THE LOOP)
CATLavn-l

CATLrgb-l

Elsewhere, based on my analysis of the global models this morning, models are not indicating any development over the next 7-10 days.  Analysis of the current MJO forecast reveals dynamic models are holding the MJO over Octant, or phase 7 for the next 2 weeks.  This is a change from what we saw last week, in that models were hinting at the MJO coming into phase 8, which would have provided, or begun to provide a more favorable environment for the GOMEX and W. Caribbean sea.  Unless we can get the MJO into phase 8 and 1, and should the current MJO forecast hold true, I am really not expecting any activity over the next 7-10 days.

MJO INDEX FORECAST ECMF MODEL
ECMF_phase_51m_full

MJO INDEX FORECAST GFS MODEL
NCPE_phase_21m_full

It is noted the the NAO is still forecast to be in a negative, going to neutral phase over the next 2 weeks.  This would have a tendency to allow for some heat to build in the tropics, by slowing trade winds and reducing upwelling of colder sst’s.  It would also aid in a slight  reduction of the effect of wind shear.

NAO INDEX FORECAST
nao.sprd2

NAO

A good amount of African dust covered the Atlantic this morning, and SAL outbreaks are more numerous and stronger during the month of July.

SAL ANALYSIS
truecol

SST anomalies are still well below the average in the MDR, and will most likely remain as such, until the NAO can hold neutral or negative for a longer period of time, and until we see a reduction in the SAL.  SST anomalies still indicate a concern for me, with much warmer anomalies off the U.S. east coast, Bahamas, and GOMEX.  Albeit after July, we look toward the MDR, my concern is something that may survive enough, making its way out of the MDR, and moving into these warmer than average sst’s.

SST ANOMALY CHART
anomw.6.25.2015

But for now, based on a lack of the MJO, and the continued presence of El Nino, and the SAL, etc., we could see a quiet July.  However this is not to say we should quit monitoring the GOMEX and Caribbean, as we all know conditions have changed in some cases, very quickly in past seasons.

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes during the next 7 days.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 27, 2015…12:50 P.M. EDT

  1. You’re welcome, everyone!

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I’ll be happy for a quiet July. However, late August-early September is when I tend to sit up and take more notice, given the city’s history. Rest up, Storm, August will be here soon!

  3. greg goodman says:

    Thankyou for the update mr storm.

  4. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks for the update Storm! Much appreciated.

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