SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
I haven’t updated the past couple of days, as my schedule has been LONG, and had to help my son with some personal business.
Based on the 06Z NHC TAFB Surface Analysis map, Tropical Waves were located near 63W, 48W, and 30W. The wave that was located near 30W, has moved to near 40W, and displays some slight cyclonic curvature. I do not expect any development from this wave, given dry air and wind shear in the path. This wave should move over South America within the next 48-72 hours.
Elsewhere, based on my analysis of the global models this morning, models are not indicating any development over the next 7-10 days. Analysis of the current MJO forecast reveals dynamic models are holding the MJO over Octant, or phase 7 for the next 2 weeks. This is a change from what we saw last week, in that models were hinting at the MJO coming into phase 8, which would have provided, or begun to provide a more favorable environment for the GOMEX and W. Caribbean sea. Unless we can get the MJO into phase 8 and 1, and should the current MJO forecast hold true, I am really not expecting any activity over the next 7-10 days.
It is noted the the NAO is still forecast to be in a negative, going to neutral phase over the next 2 weeks. This would have a tendency to allow for some heat to build in the tropics, by slowing trade winds and reducing upwelling of colder sst’s. It would also aid in a slight reduction of the effect of wind shear.
A good amount of African dust covered the Atlantic this morning, and SAL outbreaks are more numerous and stronger during the month of July.
SST anomalies are still well below the average in the MDR, and will most likely remain as such, until the NAO can hold neutral or negative for a longer period of time, and until we see a reduction in the SAL. SST anomalies still indicate a concern for me, with much warmer anomalies off the U.S. east coast, Bahamas, and GOMEX. Albeit after July, we look toward the MDR, my concern is something that may survive enough, making its way out of the MDR, and moving into these warmer than average sst’s.
But for now, based on a lack of the MJO, and the continued presence of El Nino, and the SAL, etc., we could see a quiet July. However this is not to say we should quit monitoring the GOMEX and Caribbean, as we all know conditions have changed in some cases, very quickly in past seasons.
I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes during the next 7 days.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS