SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
An area of cloudiness and showers, entering the southern Bahamas this morning is associated with a TUTT axis. Cloudiness over the Yucatan Peninsula is associated with an upper level low. Conditions are currently unfavorable for any development of either area at this time.
The tropics remain quiet, with the Tropical Atlantic being very stable, as noted by the Stratocumulus cloud deck in the lower levels, and dry air covering a great majority of the Atlantic basin.
Analysis of global computer models this morning indicates no tropical cyclone formation during the next 7-10 days. However, the current NCEP EMC Cyclone Genesis output from 06Z, is hinting at possible development in the BOC between the 120-240 hour forecast period. I am kind of hesitant to place credence in this at the moment, as I have noted initialization with this modeling tends to be very robust. However, I cannot discount the fact of this ensemble product nailing Tropical Storm Bill. It has seemed strange, to have such discrepancies in various modeling so far this season.
Analysis of the current wind shear forecast from the GFS, which has nailed wind shear projections thus far this season, may indicate why the NCEP modeling is hinting at possible development. Wind shear is forecast to relax over the BOC, with a well established upper level anticyclone forecast to develop over the area.
The OLR anomaly forecast does indicate the presence of an upward motion phase of the MJO by July 05, 2015, however this does not coincide with other models MJO forecast.
Again, being this has been pretty much just initialized, I will be watching the area within the next 7 days.
El Nino is still alive and well, and has built pretty close to the 1997 El Nino levels.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS