TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 23, 2015…2:05 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:  ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
money-dog-300x300

Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

An area of cloudiness and showers, entering the southern Bahamas this morning is associated with a TUTT axis.  Cloudiness over the Yucatan Peninsula is associated with an upper level low.  Conditions are currently unfavorable for any development of either area at this time.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES
avn-l

rgb-l

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP
wg8shr

The tropics remain quiet, with the Tropical Atlantic being very stable, as noted by the Stratocumulus cloud deck in the lower levels, and dry air covering a great majority of the Atlantic basin.

NATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES
NATLrgb-l

NATLwv-l

Analysis of global computer models this morning indicates no tropical cyclone formation during the next 7-10 days.  However, the current NCEP EMC Cyclone Genesis output from 06Z, is hinting at possible development in the BOC between the 120-240 hour forecast period.  I am kind of hesitant to place credence in this at the moment, as I have noted initialization with this modeling tends to be very robust.  However, I cannot discount the fact of this ensemble product nailing Tropical Storm Bill.  It has seemed strange, to have such discrepancies in various modeling so far this season.

NCEP EMC CYCLOGENESIS TRACKING PAGE
genprob.4enscon.2015062306.altg.120_240
genprob.aeperts.2015062306.altg.120_240

Analysis of the current wind shear forecast from the GFS, which has nailed wind shear projections thus far this season, may indicate why the NCEP modeling is hinting at possible development.  Wind shear is forecast to relax over the BOC, with a well established upper level anticyclone forecast to develop over the area.

CURRENT GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
850200shear30

GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
GFS 200 streamlines

The OLR anomaly forecast does indicate the presence of an upward motion phase of the MJO by July 05, 2015, however this does not coincide with other models MJO forecast. 

OLR ANOMALY FORECAST
MJO.forecast.olr

Again, being this has been pretty much just initialized, I will be watching the area within the next 7 days.

El Nino is still alive and well, and has built pretty close to the 1997 El Nino levels.

CURRENT OPERATIONAL SST ANOMALY MAP
anomw.6.22.2015

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Severe Weather, Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 23, 2015…2:05 P.M. EDT

  1. Greg Goodman says:

    Mr storm like i said earlier something seems strange about this season. What do you think Mr storm?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s