SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
I will not be able to be here on Monday, as I have to work…but I wanted to post the information for an advanced heads up.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman OK., has issued an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY…
A SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms has been designated FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO LOWER GREAT LAKES…
…There is a MARGINAL risk ACROSS PARTS OF THE N-CNTRL/NE STATES…
From the SPC Outlook Summary:
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS…SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BE INTENSE…MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING ON MONDAY. …UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES… STRONGLY CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WITH POTENTIAL FOR CLUSTERS OF INTENSE SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. BUT WILL DEFER GIVEN ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION OF LATE D1 CONVECTION WITH ITS SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION…ALONG WITH TIMING OF THE PAIR OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WITH RESPECT TO PEAK HEATING.
Based on my late afternoon analysis of forecast Severe Weather parameters and indices from F5 DATA Severe Weather Forecast software, with output of the NAM-WRF model 12Z run, forecast indices suggest the SPC consideration of a possible upgrade to a MODERATE risk. Indices analyzed regarding tornado potential and formation, at this particular time indicate there could exist a probability of some type of tornado outbreak, albeit these indices could lessen during the next 12 hours or so, as the have in past forecasts. However, based on the current indices, the current projected SLIGHT risk area could be affected by isolated tornadoes, and the current ENHANCED risk area could experience some strong and long tracked tornado activity. Should the indices analyzed remain intact, a possibility could exist for a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation)…of course without me being able to provide further analysis in the a.m., this determination will lie with the SPC.
I HIGHLY RECOMMEND residents under the SLIGHT risk area, and especially the ENHANCED risk area re-visit this site, and click on the graphics for up to date information from the SPC. ALL GRAPHICS ARE LINKED…PLEASE, USE THEM.
I urge residents to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and their local NWS office for any pertinent statements and advisories.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS