URGENT…SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MONDAY…PRELIMINARY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…ISSUED JUN. 21, 2015…4:50 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:  ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

I will not be able to be here on Monday, as I have to work…but I wanted to post the information for an advanced heads up.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman OK., has issued an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY…

A SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms has been designated FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO LOWER GREAT LAKES…

…There is a MARGINAL risk ACROSS PARTS OF THE N-CNTRL/NE STATES…

From the SPC Outlook Summary:

…SUMMARY…
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS…SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BE INTENSE…MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING ON MONDAY. …UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES… STRONGLY CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WITH POTENTIAL FOR CLUSTERS OF INTENSE SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. BUT WILL DEFER GIVEN ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION OF LATE D1 CONVECTION WITH ITS SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION…ALONG WITH TIMING OF THE PAIR OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WITH RESPECT TO PEAK HEATING.

Based on my late afternoon analysis of forecast Severe Weather parameters and indices from F5 DATA Severe Weather Forecast software, with output of the NAM-WRF model 12Z run, forecast indices suggest the SPC consideration of a possible upgrade to a MODERATE risk.  Indices analyzed regarding tornado potential and formation, at this particular time indicate there could exist a probability of some type of tornado outbreak, albeit these indices could lessen during the next 12 hours or so, as the have in past forecasts.  However, based on the current indices, the current projected SLIGHT risk area could be affected by isolated tornadoes, and the current ENHANCED risk area could experience some strong and long tracked tornado activity.  Should the indices analyzed remain intact, a possibility could exist for a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation)…of course without me being able to provide further analysis in the a.m., this determination will lie with the SPC.

I HIGHLY RECOMMEND residents under the SLIGHT risk area, and especially the ENHANCED risk area re-visit this site, and click on the graphics for up to date information from the SPC.  ALL GRAPHICS ARE LINKED…PLEASE, USE THEM.

I urge residents to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and their local NWS office for any pertinent statements and advisories.

SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
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SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCHES

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

NWS HAZARD AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to URGENT…SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MONDAY…PRELIMINARY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…ISSUED JUN. 21, 2015…4:50 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Hope you had a good Fathers Day!. They are saying up here that later Tuesday, the Northeast maybe be in for some rough weather, Showers and strong to severe T. Storms. I guess we’ll see!

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