SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
The tropics are once again quiet this morning
Analysis of satellite imagery this morning indicates some cloudiness over the Yucatan Peninsula and western Caribbean Sea. This is associated with a weak surface trof, and the extension of the TUTT over the area. Upper level winds are not conducive for development, and are forecast to remain unfavorable over the next 7 days.
Looking at various items and global models this morning, I do not anticipate any tropical development during the next 7-10 days. By all rights, we should have a quiet spell.
It would be my speculation based on the projected NAO and MJO, that the next best chance for tropical mischief, or at least the most probable time to monitor, would be when we hit the first week of July. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is currently forecast to head negative to neutral, which indicates a weakening of the easterly trade winds over the Atlantic. This could allow for the SST’s to warm slightly, and allow for a build up of heat toward the Caribbean Sea.
There is a chance the MJO could enter our area of the world by later in the first week of July. This would provide moisture and upward motion over the GOMEX and W. Caribbean areas, although at the moment, the ECMWF is not thrilled about the solution, and the GFS and a couple of other ensemble models hinting at the MJO entering phase 8 /1 during the first week in July.
All that this means is, we may have to pay attention down that way during that time period.
It appears as if the combination of Tropical Storm Bill, and the stronger trade winds over the past few days, has created some upwelling north of the Yucatan Peninsula. However, SST’s are still very warm for the GOMEX, and north of the Bahamas and along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Given the current anomalies, it still looks as if close in development could be in order. This could pose the possibility as some of us have forecast, more activity in these areas, and depending on steering, the continued threat of another U.S. landfall.
Analysis of the SST Anomaly Map indicates El Nino is alive an healthy. One thing that interested me this morning is, the SOI has climbed out of the negative, and has been slightly positive over the last 2 – 3 days. If the trend continues to go positive, it could mean El Nino may be capped at it’s current strength. However based on the premise of the GFS MJO forecast showing strong downward motion in the western Pacific, another strong Kelvin wave could propagate eastward, and reinforce the current El Nino. Just a thought.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS