TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN, 18, 2015…1:10 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

The tropics are once again quiet this morning

Analysis of satellite imagery this morning indicates some cloudiness over the Yucatan Peninsula and western Caribbean Sea.  This is associated with a weak surface trof, and the extension of the TUTT over the area.  Upper level winds are not conducive for development, and are forecast to remain unfavorable over the next 7 days.

NOAA WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l

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CIMSS WIND SHEAR CHART (TUTT AXIS DRAWN IN)
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Looking at various items and global models this morning,  I do not anticipate any tropical development during the next 7-10 days.  By all rights, we should have a quiet spell.

It would be my speculation based on the projected NAO and MJO, that the next best chance for tropical mischief, or at least the most probable time to monitor, would be when we hit the first week of July.  The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is currently forecast to head negative to neutral, which indicates a weakening of the easterly trade winds over the Atlantic.  This could allow for the SST’s to warm slightly, and allow for a build up of heat toward the Caribbean Sea.

 

CURRENT NAO FORECAST
nao.sprd2

NAO

There is a chance the MJO could enter our area of the world by later in the first week of July.  This would provide moisture and upward motion over the GOMEX and W. Caribbean areas, although at the moment, the ECMWF is not thrilled about the solution, and the GFS and a couple of other ensemble models hinting at the MJO entering phase 8 /1 during the first week in July.

GFS ENSEMBLES MJO FORECAST
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GFS 15 DAY MJO FORECAST
GFS

MJO FILTERED OLR FORECAST (BLUE INDICATES MJO UPWARD MOTION)
MJO.forecast.olr

All that this means is, we may have to pay attention down that way during that time period.

It appears as if the combination of Tropical Storm Bill, and the stronger trade winds over the past few days, has created some upwelling north of the Yucatan Peninsula.  However, SST’s are still very warm for the GOMEX, and north of the Bahamas and along the U.S. eastern seaboard.  Given the current anomalies, it still looks as if close in development could be in order.  This could pose the possibility as some of us have forecast, more activity in these areas, and depending on steering, the continued threat of another U.S. landfall.

GOMEX SST CHART
gulfmex.c

NORTH ATLANTIC SST CHART
natlanti.c

Analysis of the SST Anomaly Map indicates El Nino is alive an healthy.  One thing that interested me this morning is, the SOI has climbed out of the negative, and has been slightly positive over the last 2 – 3 days.  If the trend continues to go positive, it could mean El Nino may be capped at it’s current strength.  However based on the premise of the GFS MJO forecast showing strong downward motion in the western Pacific, another strong Kelvin wave could propagate eastward, and reinforce the current El Nino.  Just a thought.

NOAA CURRENT OPERATIONAL SST ANOMALY CHART
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SOI 30 DAY RUNNING MEAN GRAPH
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Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN, 18, 2015…1:10 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Monty, yeah, Storm “hit it right on the nose”! And Yes, Bill’s maintaining it’s circulation and structure so long is impressive!.A “Land-cane”! We might get some of it’s moisture here late Sat. night, and into Sunday. 1-3″ some saying 2-4″ of rain. We’ll see.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. By the way…great call on Bill…as always Senior Chief. I just looked at sat images and can’t believe the great circulation Bill still has!!

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