TROPICAL STORM BILL…FINAL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 16, 2015…10:05 A.M. EDT

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  BILL

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good morning everyone!

Our second storm of the season is about to make landfall near the Port Lavaca area.  Albeit the NHC advisory indicates later this morning, SWIR satellite loop imagery, and NWS Doppler Radar loop indicate landfall may have occurred already.

TROPICAL STORM BILL SATELLITE LOOPS
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swir0-laloFLOAT

As of the 8:00 a.m. Intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm Bill:

7:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 16
Location: 28.2°N 96.0°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb / 29.44 in
Max sustained: 60 mph

Bill’s Maximum Sustained winds are 60 mph.  The following is the 8:00 a.m. updated track from this advisory

HURREVAC T.S. BILL TRACKING MAP
HURREVAC BILL 72 HOUR WIND

Bill continues to move toward the NW, and I expect this motion to continue over the next 24 – 36 hours.

The following Watches and Warnings are in effect from the NHC in Miami:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Residents along and to the right of the center will experience tropical storm force winds and heavy rains as outlined.  Coastal flooding will occur along with beach erosion, as well as flash flooding in already swollen rivers, along with probable inland flooding in flood prone areas and low lying regions.  I urge people NOT TO DRIVE through any flooding, and to say away from the shore and out of the water.

In addition to these threats, Bill will most likely spawn some weak tornadoes with the most favored areas being in the Left, front quadrant of the storm.  The following is the current forecast QPF for the area over the next few days

NOAA QPF FORECAST
090804WPCQPF_sm

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP
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The following is a Experimental Storm Surge Inundation Map.  You must agree to the terms of the product.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/090804.shtml?inundation#contents

The following link is for Local NWS Statements regarding Bill
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls2+shtml/161022.shtml?

You may also click on the following map for local NWS information pertaining to your area:

NWS WARNINGS AND HAZARDS DISPLAY
US

This will be my final update on Bill, given landfall may be occurring.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to TROPICAL STORM BILL…FINAL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 16, 2015…10:05 A.M. EDT

  1. greg goodman says:

    Mr storm great update.Mr storm this is just a practice run for later in the season.

    • Thanks Greg. Remember that local forecaster you told me about, ” I was just listening the other day and heard a forecaster say that the only way we get a threat here in the gulf this year is that if we have a cold front come down and stall.other wise we are in good shape”…and remember my answer? LOL!

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Thank you for the updates Storm. Much appreciated. Wasn’t bad here in SE TX (where I am located anyways) Had some gusty wind here and there and some rain at times. Overall, went about our normal day.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Glad to see this storm not have more time to develop out over the water. Quite a big “cloud mass” behind, or to the East and SE of where the actual center is.

  4. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I know it is difficult to put in time doing the review and report after a full day of work, but those in the path of a storm (and those of us who learn we are not!) appreciate your sacrifice for our benefit. Prayers to all in Bill’s path.

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