TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: BILL
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good morning everyone!
Our second storm of the season is about to make landfall near the Port Lavaca area. Albeit the NHC advisory indicates later this morning, SWIR satellite loop imagery, and NWS Doppler Radar loop indicate landfall may have occurred already.
As of the 8:00 a.m. Intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm Bill:
7:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 16
Location: 28.2°N 96.0°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb / 29.44 in
Max sustained: 60 mph
Bill’s Maximum Sustained winds are 60 mph. The following is the 8:00 a.m. updated track from this advisory
Bill continues to move toward the NW, and I expect this motion to continue over the next 24 – 36 hours.
The following Watches and Warnings are in effect from the NHC in Miami:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Residents along and to the right of the center will experience tropical storm force winds and heavy rains as outlined. Coastal flooding will occur along with beach erosion, as well as flash flooding in already swollen rivers, along with probable inland flooding in flood prone areas and low lying regions. I urge people NOT TO DRIVE through any flooding, and to say away from the shore and out of the water.
In addition to these threats, Bill will most likely spawn some weak tornadoes with the most favored areas being in the Left, front quadrant of the storm. The following is the current forecast QPF for the area over the next few days
The following is a Experimental Storm Surge Inundation Map. You must agree to the terms of the product.
The following link is for Local NWS Statements regarding Bill
You may also click on the following map for local NWS information pertaining to your area:
This will be my final update on Bill, given landfall may be occurring.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS