TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: HIGH (90%)
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good evening everyone!
UPDATE: FROM THE NHC 8:00 P.M. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Surface observations and preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the area of low pressure located about 200 miles southeast of the middle Texas coast indicate that the center has become better defined since earlier today. If these trends continue, advisories will be initiated later this evening on Tropical Storm Bill.
Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds with the low are near 50 mph. Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system as it moves northwestward toward the Texas coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
Earlier today the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft did not find a well defined closed circulation, and albeit winds were found of Tropical Storm strength, the system still was not organized enough to be named BILL. However the NHC has increased the probability of development to 90%
However, current satellite loop imagery indicates INVEST 91L has become much better organized this evening, with convection building over the top of what appears to be the low level center. Thus far, the GFS wind shear forecast has been correct, and wind shear has decreased to 10 – 15 knots directly over the deep convection. Satellite loop imagery indicates 91L may be getting quickly organized, and although this is not a hurricane, what appears to be a hot tower was noted in the last couple of frames in the visible and RGB satellite loop. This would tend to indicated a strengthening trend, should it continue. The majority of the Intensity Forecast Models indicate a 45- 50 MPH Tropical Storm prior to and at the time of landfall. Given my analysis…this seems plausible, albeit I will not totally rule out the very slight probability of a 60 MPH tropical storm should the trend I have noticed continue.
Based on my analysis of the most recent run of the GFS wind shear model, upper level winds are forecast to remain favorable for further development until this system makes landfall, with an upper level anticyclone becoming better established over the system, during the next 12 -16 hours.
Given my analysis of satellite loop imagery, and the current wind shear and wind shear forecast, I would not be surprised to see the NHC began advisories on Tropical Storm Bill in the 8:00 P.M. update.
Based on my analysis of the current steering layers maps, and global models, the system could make landfall sometime tomorrow. Based on analysis, I prefer the TVCN / TVCC track in the 18Z Dynamic Model Guidance.
Based on this, landfall could occur anywhere between Corpus Christie , eastward to Freeport / Lake Jackson area.
Regardless of where the center crosses the coast, residents within the track area, should begin preparations for tropical storm force winds. Residents of this same area, and portions of SW Louisiana if you live in a flood prone area, low lying area, should be prepared for flash flooding and for rivers around or close to your area to possibly reach flood stage. Given the tremendous amount of rainfall that portions of Texas have received, you will be more at risk for this. FLOOD WATCHES AND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED for portions of TX and SW LA. The following are the QPF possible totals for rainfall. Amounts could be greater if the system slows after landfall.
Please click on the map below to refer to your local NWS office for statements regarding impacts to your on this system
I will try to have an update tomorrow, hopefully prior to landfall..
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS