TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SPECIAL EVENING EDITION…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…ISSUED JUN 15, 2015…7:20 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  HIGH (90%)

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 1
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good evening everyone!

UPDATE:  FROM THE NHC 8:00 P.M. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:

 

Surface observations and preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the area of low pressure located about 200 miles southeast of the middle Texas coast indicate that the center has become better defined since earlier today. If these trends continue, advisories will be initiated later this evening on Tropical Storm Bill.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds with the low are near 50 mph. Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system as it moves northwestward toward the Texas coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Earlier today the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft did not find a well defined closed circulation, and albeit winds were found of Tropical Storm strength, the system still was not organized enough to be named BILL.  However the NHC has increased the probability of development to 90%

NHC GTWO
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However, current satellite loop imagery indicates INVEST 91L has become much better organized this evening, with convection building over the top of what appears to be the low level center.  Thus far, the GFS wind shear forecast has been correct, and wind shear has decreased to 10 – 15 knots directly over the deep convection.  Satellite loop imagery indicates 91L may be getting quickly organized, and although this is not a hurricane, what appears to be a hot tower was noted in the last couple of frames in the visible and RGB satellite loop.  This would tend to indicated a strengthening trend, should it continue.  The majority of the Intensity Forecast Models indicate a 45- 50 MPH Tropical Storm prior to and at the time of landfall.  Given my analysis…this seems plausible, albeit I will not totally rule out the very slight probability of a 60 MPH tropical storm should the trend I have noticed continue.

INVEST 91L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
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GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
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NWS RADAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
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Based on my analysis of the most recent run of the GFS wind shear model, upper level winds are forecast to remain favorable for further development until this system makes landfall, with an upper level anticyclone becoming better established over the system, during the next 12 -16 hours.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
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Given my analysis of satellite loop imagery, and the current wind shear and  wind shear forecast, I would not be surprised to see the NHC began advisories on Tropical Storm Bill in the 8:00 P.M. update.

Based on my analysis of the current steering layers maps, and global models, the system could make landfall sometime tomorrow.  Based on analysis, I prefer the TVCN / TVCC track in the 18Z Dynamic Model Guidance.

ATCF 18Z DYNAMIC TRACK GUIDANCE INVEST 91L
INVEST91L 18Z DYNAMIC MODEL

Based on this, landfall could occur anywhere between Corpus Christie , eastward to Freeport / Lake Jackson area.

Regardless of where the center crosses the coast, residents within the track area, should begin preparations for tropical storm force winds.  Residents of this same area, and portions of SW Louisiana if you live in a flood prone area, low lying area, should be prepared for flash flooding and for rivers around or close to your area to possibly reach flood stage.  Given the tremendous amount of rainfall that portions of Texas have received, you will be more at risk for this.  FLOOD WATCHES AND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED for portions of TX and SW LA.  The following are the QPF possible totals for rainfall.  Amounts could be greater if the system slows after landfall.

QPF PROJECTION
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Please click on the map below to refer to your local NWS office for statements regarding impacts to your on this system

NWS WARNINGS AND HAZARDS DISPLAY
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I will try to have an update tomorrow,  hopefully prior to landfall..

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SPECIAL EVENING EDITION…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…ISSUED JUN 15, 2015…7:20 P.M. EDT

  1. Port A BeachBums says:

    We have kept this in the back of our minds since we went into Corpus for a few things to keep us going for the next week or so. Food and a few batteries will probably do the job but if things change (as they have been known to do!) we’ll just pick up and leave. It now looks as though we will not have to water the grass for a few days! Good luck to those who are “more in the path.”

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    We did get water, batteries and such today. Not exactly sure what to expect here. We are about 15 minutes form LA border. (orange county area) Can you give your thoughts?

    • You could get some heavy rainbands, gusty winds associated with the rain bands…how much rain and wind I can’t exactly pinpoint right now, but if you go to the NWS Warnings and Hazards map I have posted, updates fro your closest NWS office will be posting almost continuously. Just click on or near your area on the map.

      • TexasHurricane says:

        Thanks Storm. Our local just said about 1-3 inches. So, might not be to bad here unless of course it changes and goes more north.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Sent this out to the whole gang. Thank you so much for your continued dedication!!

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