SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: HIGH (80%)
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good evening everyone!
Just in from the NHC…8:00 P.M. UPDATE (This updated just as I was posting my finished synopsis):
Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed in association with the surface trough and upper-level low over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. However, the low’s circulation is not well-defined, and the current shower and thunderstorm activity remains somewhat disorganized. The aircraft also found a large area of tropical storm force winds well to the north and northeast of the low. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more favorable while this system moves northwestward during the next couple of days across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form during that time. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate this system Monday morning.
Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast Monday night and Tuesday. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Current satellite loop imagery supports the flight information, in which a broad circulation is noted and ill defined at the moment. However, it appears that the last few frames in the satellite loop indicate convection may be starting to build NW of the last reported center from the 18Z ATCF FTP information:
MOVEMENT: NW 10MPH
MIN. PRESSURE: 1008 MB / 29.77 IN
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 35 MPH
The recent wind shear product from CIMSS indicates NW shear continues to diminish, and the values directly over and near where the “center” was located at 18Z, are about 10 knots. This is down from 20 – 25 knots from this morning.
The wind shear forecast based on the 18Z GFS run, has changed slightly, with conditions shown to be not as favorable from this mornings run, but still an improvement from what the current shear conditions are at the moment. The wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates shear values to be 10 -15 knots over the GOMEX within the next 24 – 36 hours, but with the exception of the upper level anticyclone now forecast to develop just about or slightly before the time of land fall. Unless upper level conditions improve more and earlier than currently projected, I have to agree with the current run of the intensity models at holding this to below, or at minimal tropical storm strength. This of course can change, depending on how quickly the system can become organized over the next 24 hours. I’ve seen in past seasons where upper level winds can change from unfavorable to very favorable in a period of 24 hours.
The current run of the Dynamic Model guidance suggests a slight shift to the right in track. While at the moment I have to concur, these shifts will continue to happen, until a well defined, closed low level circulation (LLC) is firmly established. Based on this, I prefer the track guidance of the TVCN/TVCC models, which are right on top of each other in the graphic.
Given the uncertainty at the moment on a positive track, residents from Corpus Christie, to the Louisiana border should monitor the progress of this system closely. Residents from Corpus Christie to Galveston should also monitor this system, in the event this system becomes better developed and a Tropical Storm Watch is issued. Again, this is just my preliminary precaution given the uncertainties at the moment.
Please click on the map below to refer to your local NWS office for statements regarding impacts to your on this system
I will not be able to update tomorrow, as I work all day.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS