TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 14, 2015…11:55 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  MEDIUM (60%)

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 1
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 91L continues to move toward the NW this morning, at around 5 – 8 mph.  As of the 12Z information from the ATCF FTP data, the following was available on INVEST 91L:

LOCATION: 20.5N…89.0W
MOVEMENT: NW 5 – 8 MPH
MIN. PRESSURE: 1008 MB / 29.77 IN
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 35 MPH

The NHC in Miami has increased the 5 day probability for tropical cyclone development to 60%

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
two_atl_5d0

Satellite imagery this morning indicated a very disorganized system.  While the 12Z ATCF FTP information placed the center still over the Yucatan Peninsula, recent satellite loop imagery of the RGB and Shortwave IR Floater channels tend to indicate the “center” may be reforming near Latitude 22.0N;Longitude 90.0W.  This would place the center just exiting into the Gulf of Mexico.

You must click on the satellite images to activate the loop.

NOAA GULF OF MEXICO SATELLITE LOOP
avn-l

NOAA FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES
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rgb0-laloFLOAT

swir0-laloFLOAT

Albeit this disturbance will be over warm water soon, it has some unfavorable conditions at the moment.  Current water vapor imagery indicates dry air to the west of the circulation, NW wind shear is currently on the order of 20 – 25 knots, and close proximity to land.

GOMEX WATER VAPOR LOOP
wv-l

CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP FROM CIMSS
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However, the GFS shear forecast, which I have personally found reliable over the past 4 seasons, does indicate upper level winds may become more favorable in about 36 hours or so, with shear values forecast to diminish to 10 – 15 knots over the GOMEX, and a hint at an upper level anticyclone developing over the disturbance, about 12 – 18 hours prior to landfall.  This time-frame is an approximation, as the system could speed up, or slow down at any given point in time.  But, you get the general idea…in that conditions could become more favorable based on current information.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 42 HOURS
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GFS 200 MB STREAMLINES (BROWN ARROWS)
GFS 200 streamlines

One item of note…in the ATCF FTP information, the INVEST was downgraded slight from a low back to a disturbance, which would tend to indicate there may not be a well defined, closed low level circulation.  In any event, I do believe if conditions play out as forecast, and the disturbance can overcome the dry air, we could see a minimal tropical storm prior to landfall.  Based on current uncertainty of the LLC, and future track, I cannot fully rule out the possibility of a slightly stronger system at landfall (40 – 50 mph).  Keep in mind ANA…the forecast was for a minimal TS, and she ramped up to 60 – 70 mph (if memory serves me correctly).

We should have better information tonight or tomorrow after the Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigates the system.

Based on current and forecast steering layers maps, the system should keep pretty much on a NW motion, and could make landfall on the Texas coastline near Port Lavaca.  Given the uncertainty at the moment on a positive track, residents from Corpus Christie, to the Louisiana border should monitor the progress of this system closely.  Residents from Corpus Christie to Galveston should also monitor this system, in the event this system becomes better developed and a Tropical Storm Watch is issued.  Again, this is just my preliminary precaution given the uncertainties at the moment.

CURRENT STEERING LAYERS MAP
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ATCF 12Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
INVEST91L 12Z DYNAMIC MODEL

I will not be able to update tomorrow, as I work all day, so I will try to have another update sometime this evening.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 14, 2015…11:55 A.M. EDT

  1. WAD stx. says:

    Please send toward St. Croix EAST !!! Eastern Carib. still in a severe drought. At this point we’ll take just about any storm right now.

  2. stefanie says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m sure glad to have you explain the shear maps. I never have got that straight. lol.

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