SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: MEDIUM (60%)
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 91L continues to move toward the NW this morning, at around 5 – 8 mph. As of the 12Z information from the ATCF FTP data, the following was available on INVEST 91L:
MOVEMENT: NW 5 – 8 MPH
MIN. PRESSURE: 1008 MB / 29.77 IN
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 35 MPH
The NHC in Miami has increased the 5 day probability for tropical cyclone development to 60%
Satellite imagery this morning indicated a very disorganized system. While the 12Z ATCF FTP information placed the center still over the Yucatan Peninsula, recent satellite loop imagery of the RGB and Shortwave IR Floater channels tend to indicate the “center” may be reforming near Latitude 22.0N;Longitude 90.0W. This would place the center just exiting into the Gulf of Mexico.
You must click on the satellite images to activate the loop.
Albeit this disturbance will be over warm water soon, it has some unfavorable conditions at the moment. Current water vapor imagery indicates dry air to the west of the circulation, NW wind shear is currently on the order of 20 – 25 knots, and close proximity to land.
However, the GFS shear forecast, which I have personally found reliable over the past 4 seasons, does indicate upper level winds may become more favorable in about 36 hours or so, with shear values forecast to diminish to 10 – 15 knots over the GOMEX, and a hint at an upper level anticyclone developing over the disturbance, about 12 – 18 hours prior to landfall. This time-frame is an approximation, as the system could speed up, or slow down at any given point in time. But, you get the general idea…in that conditions could become more favorable based on current information.
One item of note…in the ATCF FTP information, the INVEST was downgraded slight from a low back to a disturbance, which would tend to indicate there may not be a well defined, closed low level circulation. In any event, I do believe if conditions play out as forecast, and the disturbance can overcome the dry air, we could see a minimal tropical storm prior to landfall. Based on current uncertainty of the LLC, and future track, I cannot fully rule out the possibility of a slightly stronger system at landfall (40 – 50 mph). Keep in mind ANA…the forecast was for a minimal TS, and she ramped up to 60 – 70 mph (if memory serves me correctly).
We should have better information tonight or tomorrow after the Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigates the system.
Based on current and forecast steering layers maps, the system should keep pretty much on a NW motion, and could make landfall on the Texas coastline near Port Lavaca. Given the uncertainty at the moment on a positive track, residents from Corpus Christie, to the Louisiana border should monitor the progress of this system closely. Residents from Corpus Christie to Galveston should also monitor this system, in the event this system becomes better developed and a Tropical Storm Watch is issued. Again, this is just my preliminary precaution given the uncertainties at the moment.
I will not be able to update tomorrow, as I work all day, so I will try to have another update sometime this evening.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS