TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 13, 2015…7:30 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  MEDIUM (50%)

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 1
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

The area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan area that sparked my interest yesterday, has been designated INVEST 91L.  AS of 18Z, the following information was available in the ATCF FTP product:

LOCATION: 18.1N…88.5W
MOVEMENT: NW DRIFT
MIN. PRESSURE: 1009 MB / 29.80 IN
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 35 MPH

The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days.

NHC GTWO
two_atl_5d0

Clouds and convection have increased mainly to the north and east of the “center” over the past 24 hours, however the disturbance remains disorganized given the proximity to land, in addition to NWLY wind shear inhibiting development.  It is noted however,  in the upper level wind field overlay, that an outflow channel is present over the associated cloudiness.

I did notice, in satellite loop imagery, both RGB and the IR2 Shortwave channel in the floater imagery, it appears a competing low is present and noted near 20.0N;89.3W over the Yucatan Peninsula.  It is not uncommon in weak systems to have multiple vorticies swirling about, competing for energy from the main center.  I was just informed by a colleague, that the 21Z position of the low IS IN FACT over the Yucatan Peninsula.  This could most likely mean a shift in the track guidance in the 00Z run.

You must click on the satellite images in order to view the loops.

NOAA WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
avn-l

NOAA INVEST 91L FLOATER IMAGE LOOPS
avn0-laloFLOAT

rgb0-laloFLOAT

swir0-laloFLOAT

Based on my analysis of current wind shear forecast maps, development of this system once it enters the GOMEX should be somewhat slow to occur.  The forecast currently shows upper level winds to remain mostly unfavorable during the next 30 – 40 hours, however are forecast to become marginally favorable for development, with a very small area of zero zonal wind shear centered over the system.  Based on this, and if it holds true to form, I have to agree with the current run of the Intensity Forecast Models solution of a strong tropical depression.  However, I will not rule out a minimal Tropical Storm force system should upper level winds become more favorable.  One other thing to keep in the back of your mind, especially with systems that develop closer to the coast of Mexico, or southern BOC…given the shape of the coastline, this has a tendency to create what we term as forced convergence, as the coastline has a tendency to direct surface wind flow into the storm.  This is how some storms are able to recover after weakening over the Yucatan, or how some storms ramp up so quickly.

GFS 54 HOUR WIND SHEAR FORECAST (LINKED)
850200ushear9

Based on current and forecast steering maps, I agree at the moment with the 18Z ATCF Dynamic Model Guidance for 91L, preferring the current TVCN / TVCC forecast track, however with a center relocation, this will most likely change.  These tracks should be considered preliminary, until we see this begin developing over the water, and models have more time to perform subsequent runs.

ATCF 18Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INVEST 91L
INVEST91L 18Z DYNAMIC MODEL

Right now, it appears as if the heaviest of weather may remain on the east side of the system, and away from the center, unless it becomes much better organized.

Residents from Corpus Christie to Port Arthur should monitor the progress of this system over the next 48 – 60 hours for any significant changes if they occur.

I will continue to monitor this system closely, and will have another update tomorrow, hopefully before noon. 

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 13, 2015…7:30 P.M. EDT

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Well, i guess this watch includes me…..Thanks for the updates. Will be keeping an eye out.

  2. Greg Goodman says:

    Mr storm listen to the local forecast they say we are safe here.they say we have high pressure building in from the alantic and should push it to Texas. Mr storm these forecasters here are fun to watch.but that the reason I tune into you Mr storm you fine tune the forecast and go indept.

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