SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (10%)
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
Current Storm Total for 2014:
Total Storms: 1
Intense Hurricanes: 0
StormW Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8 – 10
HURRICANES: 3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2
Good day everyone!
I had taken a quick look at satellite imagery this morning, and this area did catch my eye. I didn’t have time to issue a synopsis this morning, as I had personal business to attend to today.
The NHC has designated a LOW (10%) probability for tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days.
This area over the Yucatan is associated with a mid to upper trof. However, in my analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning, and now late afternoon, I have noticed some surface turning in the low cloud deck. If you look closely in the RAMSDIS still image, I have the frame with the blue wind barbs overlay. You will notice a broad low trying to develop over the Yucatan area by evidence of a broad counterclockwise circulation.
RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP
Based on the NHC TWO, development of this area is unlikely due to strong upper level winds. However, based on my analysis of the recent wind shear forecast maps from the GFS (which I have found over the past 4 seasons has done a fairly good job at forecasting shear), upper level winds may become more favorable for development to occur, with shear values dropping to 10 – 15 knots over the GOMEX, and a slight upper level anticyclone developing over the area by 90 – 96 hours. This would be within the 5 day forecast period of the TWO.
Global models are once again hinting at a possible development, with the ECMWF being the weakest, barley developing a low, to the CMC once again being the most bullish. However, this early in the game, I am not going to put much weight in the models, until I see how this disturbed weather plays out over the next 24 – 48 hours. The NCEP EMC NCEP Ensembles still indicate a fair chance for cyclogenesis over the next 00-120 hours.
Given the factors I have just mentioned, I cannot totally rule out a possible development over the next 5 days, albeit if development occurs, it will be a slow process.
Currently, the shallow steering layer would indicate this disturbed weather to begin moving toward the NW. Right now, it is too early to even speculate on where this may go, should development occur, but at the moment, based on a blend of the global models, and the current run of the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, whatever becomes of this could affect Texas anywhere from the Port Lavaca to the Brownsville area. Again, this is not gospel, but just a preliminary probability.
I will continue to monitor this area over the next 72 – 96 hours for any significant changes. I will not be able to update tomorrow as I work, but will be back on Sunday.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS