SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 12, 2015…6:35 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  LOW (10%)

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

Current Storm Total for 2014:

Total Storms: 1
Hurricanes: 0
Intense Hurricanes: 0

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

I had taken a quick look at satellite imagery this morning, and this area did catch my eye.  I didn’t have time to issue a synopsis this morning, as I had personal business to attend to today.

The NHC has designated a LOW (10%) probability for tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
two_atl_5d0

This area over the Yucatan is associated with a mid to upper trof.  However, in my analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning, and now late afternoon, I have noticed some surface turning in the low cloud deck.  If you look closely in the RAMSDIS still image, I have the frame with the blue wind barbs overlay.  You will notice a broad low trying to develop over the Yucatan area by evidence of a broad counterclockwise circulation.

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK ALL SATELLITE IMAGES FOR THE LOOP)
avn-l

RAMSDIS SATELLITE STILL IMAGE (WIND BARB OVERLAY)
tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1_20150612201500

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP
tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

Based on the NHC TWO, development of this area is unlikely due to strong upper level winds.  However, based on my analysis of the recent wind shear forecast maps from the GFS (which I have found over the past 4 seasons has done a fairly good job at forecasting shear), upper level winds may become more favorable for development to occur, with shear values dropping to 10 – 15 knots over the GOMEX, and a slight upper level anticyclone developing over the area by 90 – 96 hours.  This would be within the 5 day forecast period of the TWO.

GFS WIND SHEAR VALUES FORECAST
GFS.shear

GFS 200 MB STREAMLINES FORECAST
GFS 200 streamlines

Global models are once again hinting at a possible development, with the ECMWF being the weakest, barley developing a low, to the CMC once again being the most bullish.  However, this early in the game, I am not going to put much weight in the models, until I see how this disturbed weather plays out over the next 24 – 48 hours.  The NCEP EMC  NCEP Ensembles still indicate a fair chance for cyclogenesis over the next 00-120 hours.

NCEP ENSEMBLE CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST
genprob.aeperts.2015061212.altg.000_120

Given the factors I have just mentioned, I cannot totally rule out a possible development over the next 5 days, albeit if development occurs, it will be a slow process.

Currently, the shallow steering layer would indicate this disturbed weather to begin moving toward the NW.  Right now, it is too early to even speculate on where this may go, should development occur, but at the moment, based on a blend of the global models, and the current run of the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, whatever becomes of this could affect Texas anywhere from the Port Lavaca to the Brownsville area.  Again, this is not gospel, but just a preliminary probability.

I will continue to monitor this area over the next 72 – 96 hours for any significant changes.  I will not be able to update tomorrow as I work, but will be back on Sunday.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 12, 2015…6:35 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm.

  2. stefanie says:

    thanks Storm. Always appreciated. 🙂

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I will peek in over the weekend off and on to see what’s happening. You did say early in your season forecasts that anything to develop would most likely be home grown vs. Saharan/Atlantic, and that is what has been happening. Thanks again for your vigilance on our behalf.

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