SEVERE WEATHER RISK: ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
Good day everyone!
Tropical waves were noted in analysis on the NHC TAFB Surface Analysis map from 06Z this morning, and were located near 63.0W, 50.0W, and 25.0W:
Analysis of global models this morning indicate no tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 – 10 days. The solution of bringing the remnant, or energy from now Tropical Depression 3E in the EPAC has been dropped. This is in response to a shift in the steering pattern over the next few days, in which now both dynamic and statistical models agree on keeping this system moving toward the WNW.
The multi model and NCEP ensembles still insist on a decent probability of cyclogenesis in the far western BOC, however I have not picked up on anything which would indicate this, should the forecast for the EPAC system hold true.
Elsewhere, I’m sure you’re looking at the satellite loops and saying, “what is that in the GOMEX south of AL/MS?” The feature in question is a mid – upper level low. Analysis of various satellite loop imagery channels, and the recent run of vorticity maps, indicates there is no surface reflection of this, and I am not expecting anything to become of this. Based on forecast steering for the mid and upper layers, this should eventually creep north to NNW over the next 48 – 72 hours. If this were to stall over the current location, then I might show a slight concern.
Just for something different, I thought I’d show you where we stand on Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, as compared to last season. Albeit there is quite a lack, we are ahead slightly from last year.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS