TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 11, 2015…10:30 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

Good day everyone!

Tropical waves were noted in analysis on the NHC TAFB Surface Analysis map from 06Z this morning, and were located near 63.0W, 50.0W, and 25.0W:

NHC TAFB 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
USA_06ZNOAA ATLANTIC WIDE SATELLITE LOOP
avn-l

NOAA WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
Wavn-l

Analysis of global models this morning indicate no tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 – 10 days.  The solution of bringing the remnant, or energy from now Tropical Depression 3E in the EPAC has been dropped.  This is in response to a shift in the steering pattern over the next few days, in which now both dynamic and statistical models agree on keeping this system moving toward the WNW.

The multi model and NCEP ensembles still insist on a decent probability of cyclogenesis in the far western BOC, however I have not picked up on anything which would indicate this, should the forecast for the EPAC system hold true.

T.D. 3E TRACK GUIDANCE
aep03_2015061112_track_early

aep03_2015061106_track_late

aep03_2015061106_track_gfs

Elsewhere, I’m sure you’re looking at the satellite loops and saying, “what is that in the GOMEX south of AL/MS?”  The feature in question is a mid – upper level low.  Analysis of various satellite loop imagery channels, and the recent run of vorticity maps, indicates there is no surface reflection of this, and I am not expecting anything to become of this.  Based on forecast steering for the mid and upper layers, this should eventually creep north to NNW over the next 48 –  72 hours.  If this were to stall over the current location, then I might show a slight concern.

Just for something different, I thought I’d show you where we stand on Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, as compared to last season.  Albeit there is quite a lack, we are ahead slightly from last year.

TCHP JUNE 09, 2015
2015160at

TCHP JUNE 09, 2014
2014160at

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 11, 2015…10:30 A.M. EDT

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks for the update Storm! We are suppose to have some good rains this weekend here is SE TX.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Hey LT. Looks like Cabo could be under the gun again. My parents finally sold their second house and are no longer going there. Thank God!

    We’re under another Flash Flood Watch. I don’t know…looks like atmosphere is a little drier than expected. Maybe a delay. Not sure.

  3. Greg Goodman says:

    Hello Mr storm great update. I was just listening the other day and heard a forecaster say that the only way we get a threat here in the gulf this year is that if we have a cold front come down and stall.other wise we are in good shape. I don’t never take my eyes off the gulf with it being so warm down there.

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Did the Tampa area get a lot of rain yesterday and last night?

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