TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 10, 2015…9:50 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

Good day everyone!

Tropical waves were noted in analysis on the NHC TAFB Surface Analysis map from 06Z this morning, and were located near 83.0W, 57.0W, and 43.0W:

NHC TAFB 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
USA_06Z
NOAA ATLANTIC WIDE SATELLITE LOOP
avn-l

NOAA WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
waavn-l

Elsewhere, analysis of the global models this morning indicate the models have dropped the solution of pulling the remnant of the current EPAC system INVEST 94E, or energy from it, into the BOC.  This is understandable, as steering currents have changed somewhat during the past 48 hours, and guidance now indicates for this system to move more to the NNW longer than initially projected, before being turned northward.  The only hint at a crossover into the BOC comes from the current run of the forecast steering layers map from PSU e-WALL, suggesting the “center” of what would be left of 94E, makes it just off the coast of Mexico, and barley into the SW BOC.  The most recent run of the NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis tracking page is also supporting the GFS in that the Multi model and NCEP Ensemble indicate a 70 – 80% prob of cyclogenesis in the forecast period of 00 – 120 hours.  I am not really buying into this at the moment, unless there is a substantial shift in the steering.  I will however re-visit this in about 72 hours for any significant changes that may occur.  Of note, in the early cycle models, the TVCA does indicate crossover.  The TVCA is one of the dynamic models, and one which is widely used in determination of storm track.

CURRENT AVAILABLE FORECAST TRACKS FOR INVEST 94E
aep94_2015061000_track_early

NCEP EMC MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE
genprob.4enscon.2015061006.altg.000_120
NCEP ENSEMBLE
genprob.aeperts.2015061006.altg.000_120

I am going to be interested to see what occurs as a broad trof of low pressure slides SE off the GA/FL area.  You will notice a broad cyclonic motion to the clouds just north of FL and extending southward.

NOAA EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP
EASTavn-l

Elsewhere, I am not totally sure why the RAMSDIS page has a floater satellite over the area of the Gulf of Honduras, unless it’s sensing what appears to be a slight cyclonic turning of the clouds over the area.  Vorticity is beginning to show up from the 850 – 700 mb level, but there is nothing vertically stacked.  As a note, none of these areas mentioned means that any development will take place.  It just implies that when I as a forecaster, see ANY apparent cyclonic turning in the clouds over warm waters, it catches my attention and helps to keep my on my toes.

RAMSDIS SATELLITE FLOATER LOOP
tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 10, 2015…9:50 A.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm at this hour looks like some BIG rains heading into SW Florida! Be safe.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Echoing Dellamom 1000% This EPAC system should be interesting. One Spaghetti model has it heading for IAH. Should I warn them yet or let this thing materialize?

  3. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm.I like how you take the tropics one day at a time. Mr storm you have always told us correct me if I am wrong the steering layer changes that said anything out 5 days take with a grain of salt..

  4. dellamom says:

    Thanks Storm. If you are talking about the spot just NNW of 15/85, it looks like it’s turning to me, too. But that’s why we value you so much (other than your kind spirit) … you see things and explain them so that we understand them. If I had just seen this on my own, I’d have wondered if it was something to worry about. You noted it, explained it, and said you are watching it for us but are not worried at this point (and why). And in a way that is understandable. Thanks for looking out for all of us.

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