SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
Good day everyone!
Tropical waves were noted in analysis on the NHC TAFB Surface Analysis map from 06Z this morning, and were located near 83.0W, 57.0W, and 43.0W:
Elsewhere, analysis of the global models this morning indicate the models have dropped the solution of pulling the remnant of the current EPAC system INVEST 94E, or energy from it, into the BOC. This is understandable, as steering currents have changed somewhat during the past 48 hours, and guidance now indicates for this system to move more to the NNW longer than initially projected, before being turned northward. The only hint at a crossover into the BOC comes from the current run of the forecast steering layers map from PSU e-WALL, suggesting the “center” of what would be left of 94E, makes it just off the coast of Mexico, and barley into the SW BOC. The most recent run of the NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis tracking page is also supporting the GFS in that the Multi model and NCEP Ensemble indicate a 70 – 80% prob of cyclogenesis in the forecast period of 00 – 120 hours. I am not really buying into this at the moment, unless there is a substantial shift in the steering. I will however re-visit this in about 72 hours for any significant changes that may occur. Of note, in the early cycle models, the TVCA does indicate crossover. The TVCA is one of the dynamic models, and one which is widely used in determination of storm track.
I am going to be interested to see what occurs as a broad trof of low pressure slides SE off the GA/FL area. You will notice a broad cyclonic motion to the clouds just north of FL and extending southward.
Elsewhere, I am not totally sure why the RAMSDIS page has a floater satellite over the area of the Gulf of Honduras, unless it’s sensing what appears to be a slight cyclonic turning of the clouds over the area. Vorticity is beginning to show up from the 850 – 700 mb level, but there is nothing vertically stacked. As a note, none of these areas mentioned means that any development will take place. It just implies that when I as a forecaster, see ANY apparent cyclonic turning in the clouds over warm waters, it catches my attention and helps to keep my on my toes.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS