SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
Good day everyone!
Well, after all of the models taking a pretty good stab at “playing chess”, moving a spurious low all around the Caribbean, Bahamas and well off the U.S. east coast, I can say I hope this isn’t and indication of things to come with the models. Two of the only reasons I had given credence to monitoring the areas, was seeing the ECMWF being onboard for a few days, and the forecast for lowering of 500 mb height anomalies. In any case, our basin is once again quiet, with the exception of convective precipitation associated with a tropical wave in the western Caribbean. I do not expect any development of this area.
Elsewhere, I am going to be monitoring the current INVEST in the WPAC for possible crossover into the extreme western BOC in about 5 days (?) Some of the global models sort of hint at his, with the CMC being the only model at this time developing a very weak area of low pressure in the GOMEX. Given the over zealous nature of the CMC over the past 2 seasons, and that none of the other global models at the moment show this solution, I am considering the CMC to be an outlier at this time. However, based on a couple of forecast items, I cannot at the moment, rule out the possibility of either the remnant of the WPAC system, or energy from it, making its way into the extreme western BOC. Analysis of what guidance models are available, indicates this system to eventually move northward within the next 4 days. The only guidance that I had access to as of analysis, were mainly statistical models, and the GFS Ensemble members. In forecasting track of a storm, we tend to use the Dynamic modeling. However, the current update of the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, in which the only available is the GFS (which has done a fairly decent job in the past), does indicate by 120 hours, riding developing out in the Pacific, west of the system, which could block any further westward movement of the system, with the flow being NNW over the BOC area. Current steering indicates a pretty much weak flow which should be moving this slowly NW right now, as a weakness is noticed over Mexico.
The 500 mb mean normal anomaly departure map indicates lowering of pressure heights over the area in the WPAC and the BOC in approximately 96 hours.
Based on all of this, this system “could” move to the NW over the next 48 – 72 hours, and then potentially move toward the north, with either a remnant or energy moving into the extreme western BOC. I will continue to monitor this during the next 72 – 96 hours.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS