TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 08, 2015…8:45 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

Good day everyone!

Well, after all of the models taking a pretty good stab at “playing chess”, moving a spurious low all around the Caribbean, Bahamas and well off the U.S. east coast, I can say I hope this isn’t and indication of things to come with the models.  Two of the only reasons I had given credence to monitoring the areas, was seeing the ECMWF being onboard for a few days, and the forecast for lowering of 500 mb height anomalies.  In any case, our basin is once again quiet, with the exception of convective precipitation associated with a tropical wave in the western Caribbean.  I do not expect any development of this area.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC WIDE VIEW LOOP
avn-l

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
Wavn-l

Elsewhere,  I am going to be monitoring the current INVEST in the WPAC for possible crossover into the extreme western BOC in about 5 days (?)  Some of the global models sort of hint at his, with the CMC being the only model at this time developing a very weak area of low pressure in the GOMEX.  Given the over zealous nature of the CMC over the past 2 seasons, and that none of  the other global models at the moment show this solution, I am considering the CMC to be an outlier at this time.  However, based on a couple of forecast items, I cannot at the moment, rule out the possibility of either the remnant of the WPAC system, or energy from it, making its way into the extreme western BOC.  Analysis of what guidance models are available, indicates this system to eventually move northward within the next 4 days.  The only guidance that I had access to as of analysis, were mainly statistical models, and the GFS Ensemble members.  In forecasting track of a storm, we tend to use the Dynamic modeling.  However, the current update of the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, in which the only available is the GFS (which has done a fairly decent job in the past), does indicate by 120 hours, riding developing out in the Pacific, west of the system, which could block any further westward movement of the system, with the flow being NNW over the BOC area.  Current steering indicates a pretty much weak flow which should be moving this slowly NW right now, as a weakness is noticed over Mexico.

CURRENT LAYER MEAN STEERING 700 – 850 MB
wg8dlm1

INVEST 94E RECENT TRACK GUIDANCE
aep94_2015060818_track_early

aep94_2015060812_track_late

aep94_2015060812_track_gfs

The 500 mb mean normal anomaly departure map indicates lowering of pressure heights over the area in the WPAC and the BOC in approximately 96 hours.

NCEP ESRL 500 MB MEAN NORM ANOMALY DEPARTURE
z500nanom_f096_usbg

Based on all of this, this system “could” move to the NW over the next 48 – 72 hours, and then potentially move toward the north, with either a remnant or energy moving into the extreme western BOC.  I will continue to monitor this during the next 72 – 96 hours.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 08, 2015…8:45 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. We are having strong thunderstorms here today, and rain is expected every day for the next week. I don’t so much mind the rain (except for roadway flooding), but the thunder, lightening and occasional possibility of tornadoes or hail bother the heck out of me. Port A, I hope this misses you. I’ll keep happy thoughts until then.

  2. Port A BeachBums says:

    Well “garbage out – garbage in” – or some such silly thing. I take no solace in the fact that “AP08” is
    pointing right at my “homestead” of the last 41 years. Oh, well, we’ve “weathered” a lot worse than this in all that time. We have to suffer through one storm at a time, and it doesn’t pay to worry about them all.

    Thanks Storm for all your help in these times of anxiety! We appreciate it! It helps us keep our head above water. Did I just say that? WOW!

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Do you think this season goes whackadoo?
    By the way. The Tornado that hit Berthoud/Loveland they’re calling EF3.

    • WOW…EF3 Bad enough. Hard to say about this season. I think we may see the models keep spitting out garbage the first part of the season. I don’t know how accurate I am on this, but it’s my belief that the models are having a hard time due to the close proximity of the PAC system near the Isthmus of Central America. Seems like a convective feedback issue because there is so much heat down there, and the models are trying to pull it north.

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