SEVERE WEATHER RISK: ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: MONITORING
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
I will be focusing mainly on the tropics from here on out, as performing analysis for both severe weather and the tropics is very time consuming, and I will be working with time constraints due in part to my part time employment. Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
Good day everyone!
Analysis of the global models this morning indicates a wide discrepancy between the models. The GFS and ECMWF indicate only a weak low moving off the eastern seaboard, which is currently located over the SC/NC area. This is forecast to continue toward the NNE, and could bring somewhat higher winds and surf along the Tidewater area and Mid Atlantic regions over the next couple of days. Satellite loop images do however indicate a small area of cyclonic turning SE of the SC area.
Another area I am monitoring is down in the Caribbean, over the Gulf of Honduras area. Notable cyclonic low level turning is noted, and is associated with a 1010 mb low which was designated in the NHC TAFB Surface analysis map.
The only model not losing interest in this area is the FIM model, which still pulls this area NE across Cuba, and developing it…subsequently drawing it to the NE over the open Atlantic.
Upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for development, however I will continue to monitor this area, as upper level winds would affect a subtropical or hybrid system somewhat differently, and the 500 mb anomaly still indicates lowering pressures in the vicinity. Given the great discrepancies in the modeling, I have lowered the tropical storm formation area from probable to monitoring.
Elsewhere, being a long time out in the forecast period, the GFS, FIM and surprisingly the ECMWF indicate at about 240 hours out (10 days), remnant energy from an EPAC storm crossing into the BOC, with the ECMWF and GFS showing a weak system developing, and heading to 2 different locations…the GFS into Mexico, and ECMWF to the southern tip of Texas. Now, there is nothing to be concerned with at the moment, as this could be a problem with convective feedback, given all of the energy in the EPAC, and proximity of a supposed PAC system so close to the land area down there.
I will be looking for run to run consistency on this, and look for any more of the global models to pick up on the probability. I will monitor this closely, as the 500 MB anomalies do indicate a lowering of pressures in the BOC around that time.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS