SEVERE WEATHER RISK: ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: PROBABLE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
I will be focusing mainly on the tropics from here on out, as performing analysis for both severe weather and the tropics is very time consuming, and I will be working with time constraints due in part to my part time employment. Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
Good day everyone!
Analysis of global models once again shows model solutions in disagreement on any development of the “low” I have been speaking of, in being all over with location and intensity. As I have mentioned prior, global models are not “hurricane models” used to pinpoint any development, but a tool suggesting to the meteorologist where various pressure cells may be located. Global models are just that, creating mathematical solutions to define the pressure patterns around the globe.
With that said, it appears both FIM models are the only ones that have been consistent over the past 4 days, and indicate a low to develop and move off to the NE, well off of the U.S. east coast. The original area appears in the FIM models, just over the western tip of Cuba. The GFS brings a low with one closed isobar off the east coast of the U.S., which leads to the following.
FIM 8 (114 HOURS)
I am currently monitoring two areas of disturbed weather. One closer to the CATL, several hundred miles NE of the Antilles, and another extending east of Florida, and down into the Caribbean sea. Close analysis of the area in the Caribbean, reveals a naked low level swirl near 22.0N;84.9W. The first is pretty much a mid to upper level feature, associated with a ULL. I am not looking for this feature to develop, but will continue to monitor it for any surface reflection over the next 4-5 days.
I will be monitoring the area from just north of the Bahamas, into the Caribbean over the next 72 – 96 hours for any slow development. Analysis of the current vorticity maps indicates vorticity at the 850 mb level, which has been persistent over the past 18 hours. With this large area of cloudiness, it is unknown to me at the moment, that if develop does try to occur, whether it will be associated with the low moving across the SEUS, and as depicted by the GFS solution, or if something may try to get going over or near Cuba, southern Bahamas, and move NE.
Based on the uncertainty at the moment, I am still going to hold a probable status on development, as some factors still point toward a decent possibility for development:
The forecast 500 mb mean normal anomaly maps still indicate a lowering of pressures over the area from the Bahamas to the Caribbean.
There is notable vorticity south of the western tip of Cuba at the 850 mb level at this time
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in Octant 1, and is forecast by all the dynamic modeling to remain in this Octant over the next 4 -5 days. This enhances development by providing moisture and upward motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean and Atlantic basins.
Albeit the wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds to be only somewhat marginal, the areas mentioned will be under the influence of divergence aloft, being on the eastern side of an upper level trof.
I will continue to monitor this region, and barring any unforeseen circumstances, intend to have an update tomorrow.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS