SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: PROBABLE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE or PROBABLE. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
I will be focusing mainly on the tropics from here on out, as performing analysis for both severe weather and the tropics is very time consuming, and I will be working with time constraints due in part to my part time employment. Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
Good day everyone!
Analysis this late morning indicates the global models to be in somewhat fair agreement of a developing low in the next 96 – 120 hours, but vary on location. The models have settled somewhat, on a weaker solution for strength. The CMC is still the most bullish, however is now on the weaker solution, having risen the pressures from a previous 982 mb, to 993 mb,. The current run of the GFS drops development, and the ECMWF being later in the period, and the furthest offshore.
Given the current wind shear forecast, and 200 mb streamlines, if anything does develop, it may only be able to attain possible minimal subtropical storm status.
The majority of the global models now show the supposed low remaining well off the U.S. east coast, out in the open Atlantic, by a few hundred miles.
Based on the NCEP Mean Normal Anomaly departures, showing a “fair” lowering of the anomalies, given the discrepancy between the models, I will continue to monitor the area from the Caribbean to the Bahamas over the next 48 -72 hours for signs of any development. I have found over time, it is best with this type of situation regarding the models, to monitor, and update in real time.
My work schedule has changed once again, and I work Wed., Thu, and Sat. I will to update Wed., and Thu if possible, as I’m scheduled for late morning.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS