TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 02, 2015…12:05 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  PROBABLE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity. 

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE or PROBABLE.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

I will be focusing mainly on the tropics from here on out, as performing analysis for both severe weather and the tropics is very time consuming, and I will be working with time constraints due in part to my part time employment.  Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

Good day everyone!

Analysis this late morning indicates the global models to be in somewhat fair agreement of a developing low in the next 96 – 120 hours, but vary on location.  The models have settled somewhat, on a weaker solution for strength.  The CMC is still the most bullish, however is now on the weaker solution, having risen the pressures from a previous 982 mb, to 993 mb,.  The current run of the GFS drops development, and the ECMWF being later in the period, and the furthest offshore.

NOAA ATLANTIC WIDE VIEW SATELLITE LOOP
avn-l

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP

Given the current wind shear forecast, and 200 mb streamlines, if anything does develop, it may only be able to attain possible minimal subtropical storm status.

The majority of the global models now show the supposed low remaining well off the U.S. east coast, out in the open Atlantic, by a few hundred miles.

CMC
CMC
ECMWF
ECMWF

ECMWF 144
FIM8
FIM8wind_10m_f120

FIM9
wind_10m_f120

Based on the NCEP Mean Normal Anomaly departures, showing a “fair” lowering of the anomalies, given the discrepancy between the models, I will continue to monitor the area from the Caribbean to the Bahamas over the next 48 -72 hours for signs of any development.  I have found over time, it is best with this type of situation regarding the models, to monitor, and update in real time.

NCEP 500 MB MEAN NORMAL ANOMALY DEPARTURE 120 HOURS
z500nanom_f120_usbg

My work schedule has changed once again, and I work Wed., Thu, and Sat.  I will to update Wed., and Thu if possible, as I’m scheduled for late morning.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 02, 2015…12:05 P.M. EDT

  1. Monty says:

    Whew!! Here we go Storm already have one Cat 4 in EPAC with #2 right behind it. Our side looks hot too

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm.

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