SLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER RISK / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 28, 2015…10:30 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND and THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS…

There is a MARGINAL risk OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND, THE PLAINS REGION AND PARTS OF THE GULF COAST AREA…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

day1probotlk_1300_torn

Based on information contained in the outlook, and my analysis of forecast sounding values and indices, TX should once again be the recipient of the brunt of severe weather.  Analysis of these parameters indicates to best probability for tornado activity lies within the outlined area in the following map, with the possibility of isolated tornadoes associated with stronger cells, becoming strong and long track from mid afternoon to early evening.  This is based on the 06Z run of the NAM-WRF model graphic output from F5 DATA Severe Weather software.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF TORNADO PROBABILITY AREA
f5nam.tor1

Residents within the risk areas, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements and warnings this afternoon into evening. 

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  You will need to click on them for the most current information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS DOPPLER RADAR
latest_Small

NWS HAZARD, WATCH AND WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)

TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO:

The mid-upper low I’ve been monitoring several hundred miles east of FL. has shown very little change over the past 24 hours.  This low continues to move toward the west.  Based on water vapor loop imagery, and wind shear, I am not expecting any development from this area.

NOAA WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY…AVN AND WATER VAPOR

Analysis of the global models this morning indicates varying solutions from each model, however with the FIM 8 and FIM 9 models being in very close agreement with each other.  The GFS shows the trof split I have been mentioning, and develops a weak low over the southern portion of the FL. peninsula, to the FL. straits.

FIM 8

FIM9

GFS
GFS

The CMC indicates a weak low just off the SE portion of FL., into the extreme NW Bahamas area.

CMC
CMC

The ECMWF indicates a piece of the 500 mb trof split, and an inverted trof over the FL. peninsula, which I have placed a black circle around the 500 mb feature, and trof axis in yellow.

ECMWF
ECMWF

So, quite a different look this morning, as opposed to a couple of days ago.  A little lesson in model analysis…when models are waffling like this, we see at times, and in general, they will be more robust on initialization of features in the tropics, then back off, as in this case, with the GFS and CMC sometimes showing stronger solutions on and off thereafter.  You see, global models are not “Hurricane Models” per se…they are just what the name implies…Global Models.  Information is put into them, and they spit out a mathematical solution..it is not there job to accurately pinpoint tropical development.  They do however, indicate where they “think” various highs and lows may be located.  As a meteorologist, this type scenario has to be looked at as the models “hinting” that some mischief “could” occur…sending a signal to folks like me, that the area needs to be monitored.  Pressure heights are still forecast to rise over the northern and eastern tier of states over the next 10 days, which naturally means, pressure anomalies will lower to the south.  This is meteorology 101…in that the PGF (Pressure Gradient Force) flows from higher pressure to lower pressure.

500 MB ANOMALY MAPS SHOWING HEIGHT RISES (LINKED)

z500nanom_f192_usbg

PGF EXPLAINED (LINKED)
pgf1

So as the first week of the 2015 hurricane season begins, I will be monitoring the area for any suspicious activity.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Severe Weather, Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to SLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER RISK / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 28, 2015…10:30 A.M. EDT

  1. Elliot Lisak says:

    Thank you for your explanation much appreciated.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. nice discussion on models and what they really indicate, especially 1-2 weeks out. Last night, the heavier T. Storms “fizzled” as they hit coastal areas.Marine layer knocked them down. Had some gusty winds and some lightning, but not much rain. Inland, in NW Nj, the Hudson Valley, and NW CT. had some stronger storms.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s