SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 27, 2015…10:25 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY…THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND…and OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS…

A MARGINAL risk exists OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

day1probotlk_1300_torn

Based on various severe weather indices and outlines provided through F5 DATA Severe Weather software, with a blend of the NAM-WRF and RAP models, as well as the SPC SREF, indications seem to imply severe weather may extend west of the area over TX, outlined in the following map:

F5 DATA NAM-WRF / RAP OUTLINE
day1otlk_1300.2

Residents within the risk areas, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements and warnings this afternoon into evening. 

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  You will need to click on them for the most current information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS DOPPLER RADAR
latest_Small

NWS HAZARD, WATCH AND WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)

TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO:

The mid to upper low I’ve been monitoring, appears as if it is trying to work down to the surface, as vorticity has increased somewhat at the 925 mb level. 

NOAA CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

Based on my analysis, this area is moving toward the west.  I am not however, expecting any development from this, as it remains embedded in the trof axis and 30 – 40 knots of northerly wind shear.

PSU E-WALL 925 MB VORTICITY MAP

MID LEVEL WIND FIELD

Analysis of global models this morning, once again suggests the GFS and CMC indicate a low developing just east of FL., or just at the coast.  The FIM 8 and FIM 9 models indicate a low closer to the FL coast, and the ECMWF just begins a trof over FL.  This would be in response to a trof split.

GFS
GFS.216
CMC
CMC 216
ECMWF
ECMWF 240

FIM 8

FIM9

Wind shear is forecast to be on the order of only 15 knots, with the upper air pattern resembling that of when ANA took shape

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
GFS.shear

I am at the point to where I cannot totally rule out something trying to develop near the FL. coast, or extreme NW Bahamas area.  This is out to around June 04-05.

I will be monitoring further runs of the models for consistency, however this is the 2nd or 3rd day the modeling has been hinting at this.  Given that height rises are still forecast over the NEUS at that time, albeit not shown, lowering pressures could occur near the area depicted where the low is forecast.

NCEP 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES 216 HOUR FORECAST
z500nanom_f216_usbg

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 27, 2015…10:25 A.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, and thanks for the “heads-up” about possible tropical formation next week, about June 4th or 5th. If I get any T. Storm activity here in Stamford, I’ll let you know.

  2. Greg Goodman says:

    Mr storm you are gearing up for hurricane season. What are your thoughts on the season? Everything I have heard it looks like a boring season with all of the action in the pacific. But Mr storm I know better it only takes one in your back yard.

    • Greg, it should be a below average season . I’ll try to pull up my pre-season forecast so you can read it. My thought is 8-10 storms. Possible fair amount of close in development looking a sst profiles.

      • Donna Street says:

        I remember that you said there wouldn’t be as many, but what there were would probably be “home grown” rather than coming across the Atlantic, and thus more a threat to the continental US. Do I remember that correctly?

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