SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY…THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND…and OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS…
A MARGINAL risk exists OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US…
Based on various severe weather indices and outlines provided through F5 DATA Severe Weather software, with a blend of the NAM-WRF and RAP models, as well as the SPC SREF, indications seem to imply severe weather may extend west of the area over TX, outlined in the following map:
Residents within the risk areas, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements and warnings this afternoon into evening.
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites. You will need to click on them for the most current information.
TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO:
The mid to upper low I’ve been monitoring, appears as if it is trying to work down to the surface, as vorticity has increased somewhat at the 925 mb level.
Based on my analysis, this area is moving toward the west. I am not however, expecting any development from this, as it remains embedded in the trof axis and 30 – 40 knots of northerly wind shear.
Analysis of global models this morning, once again suggests the GFS and CMC indicate a low developing just east of FL., or just at the coast. The FIM 8 and FIM 9 models indicate a low closer to the FL coast, and the ECMWF just begins a trof over FL. This would be in response to a trof split.
Wind shear is forecast to be on the order of only 15 knots, with the upper air pattern resembling that of when ANA took shape
I am at the point to where I cannot totally rule out something trying to develop near the FL. coast, or extreme NW Bahamas area. This is out to around June 04-05.
I will be monitoring further runs of the models for consistency, however this is the 2nd or 3rd day the modeling has been hinting at this. Given that height rises are still forecast over the NEUS at that time, albeit not shown, lowering pressures could occur near the area depicted where the low is forecast.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS