URGENT…MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…PWO ISSUED…REQUEST WIDEST DISSEMINATION / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED MAY 25, 2015…11:00 A.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK…NORTHEAST TX…AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR…

AN ENHANCED risk has been designated OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK…WESTERN AR…NORTHWEST LA…AND NORTH/CENTRAL TX…

A SLIGHT risk has been designated ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY…and OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS…

A MARGINAL risk has been designated ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS
day1otlk_1300

day1probotlk_1300_torn

day1probotlk_1300_hail

day1probotlk_1300_wind

…SUMMARY… WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.

…AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK…WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL…AND A FEW TORNADOES…

Based on my analysis of the outlook text, and more so the graphical output from F5 DATA Severe Weather software using the RAP model, the greatest probability for the most significant severe weather lies within the ENHANCED and MODERATE  risk areas  This is pretty much in line with the SPC graphics for hail and wind areas.  The areas under the greatest probability for tornadoes, based on analysis of forecast sounding values and indices suggests the greatest threat lies within the white outline I have drawn, which pretty much coincides with the SPC SIGNIFICANT HAIL MAP, HATCHED AREA.

F5 DATA RAP BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5nam.tor1

Based on forecast indices, this area has a high probability, at least at the time of analysis, for some strong, and long tracked tornadoes EF3 – EF5.  This activity is currently forecast to initiate at maximum potential daytime heating (3:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m. CDT)

The following indices were measured at time of analysis, which could change as we get into the afternoon:

SBCAPE (Surface Based CAPE) 2500 – 3000 j/kg
MLCAPE (Mixed Layer CAPE) 1000 – 2500 j/kg
LI (Lifted Index) -6 to -8
STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) 2 – 7
EHI (Energy Helicity Index) 2 – 6

The first 3 indicate a very unstable atmosphere.

Values of the last 2 indicate the following:

STP 1 OR GREATER = Potential for significant tornadoes increases dramatically
EHI 3 – 3.9 = A few strong, long tracked tornadoes could occur
EHI 4+ = Likelihood of strong, long tracked tornadoes is very high.

Residents within the risk areas, ESPECIALLY in the MODERATE / ENHANCED areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements and warnings this afternoon into evening. 

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation)

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following Public Severe Weather Outlook is in effect

SPC PWO (LINKED)
swo_201505251231

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  You will need to click on them for the most current information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS DOPPLER RADAR
latest_Small

NWS HAZARD, WATCH AND WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)

TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO:

The tropics remain quiet again this morning.  The Tropical Wave I have been tracking is now approaching 40W, and continues to move toward the west at around 10 – 15 mph.  SAL is hindering convection at the moment. I do not expect development of this wave as conditions remain unfavorable.

NHC TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS
USA_06Z
NOAA TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to URGENT…MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…PWO ISSUED…REQUEST WIDEST DISSEMINATION / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED MAY 25, 2015…11:00 A.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you Storm. We have been having severe thunderstorms for a few hours and a good portion of the state has been under a tornado warning. The morning commute should be fun. It’s headed toward Greg and Mike in Mobile now. Stay safe, guys.

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