SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 24, 2015…3:15 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM MO SWD TO LA/WRN MS…and FROM SERN CO/SWRN KS SEWD TO SWRN OK/WRN N TX…

There is a MARGINAL risk ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS…AND ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY STATES…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1630

day1probotlk_1630_torn

Analysis of various tornado parameters in the forecast soundings indicate the best probability for tornadoes lies within the slight risk zone, within the 5% probability area from around 4:00 p.m. CDT –  8:00 p.m. CDT early afternoon into early evening.  The areas most likely to experience the heaviest severe weather, and tornadoes appear to be Missouri, most of Arkansas, and the majority of central LA (in the corridor).

Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements and warnings this afternoon into evening. 

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  You will need to click on them for the most current information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARD, WATCH AND WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)

TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO:

The tropics remain quiet again this morning.

The first Tropical Wave rolled off the coast  of Africa 3 days ago.

The wave can be seen in satellite loop imagery, and is circled in MIMIC TPW imagery, seen approaching 35W.

NHC TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS
USA_12Z

CATL RGB SATELLITE LOOP

MIMIC TPW LOOP IMAGERY
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I am not expecting anything to become of this wave, due to shear and dry air…not so much as attributed to the SAL, but due to subsidence from the subtropical ridge. Some dust can be noted, however SAL strength doesn’t appear too strong, as noted in the RGB Dust channel from EUMETSAT (African dust shows up as the MAGENTA colors in the satellite image).

CIMSS SAL PSEUDO COLOR SATELLITE IMAGE
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EUMETSAT RGB DUST CHANNEL

Elsewhere, analysis of Global Models indicates no Tropical Storm formation during the next 7-10 days.  However, the GFS and CMC indicate numerous trof splits IVO the GOMEX and off the SEUS coast.  I will be keeping my eye on the pattern as we enter the first week of June.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 24, 2015…3:15 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm . Have a good Memorial Day You, and all Vets that served deserve it . –And families who lost men and women that made the ultimate sacrifice.

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