SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM MO SWD TO LA/WRN MS…and FROM SERN CO/SWRN KS SEWD TO SWRN OK/WRN N TX…
There is a MARGINAL risk ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS…AND ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY STATES…
Analysis of various tornado parameters in the forecast soundings indicate the best probability for tornadoes lies within the slight risk zone, within the 5% probability area from around 4:00 p.m. CDT – 8:00 p.m. CDT early afternoon into early evening. The areas most likely to experience the heaviest severe weather, and tornadoes appear to be Missouri, most of Arkansas, and the majority of central LA (in the corridor).
Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements and warnings this afternoon into evening.
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites. You will need to click on them for the most current information.
TROPICAL WEATHER SECTION FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO:
The tropics remain quiet again this morning.
The first Tropical Wave rolled off the coast of Africa 3 days ago.
The wave can be seen in satellite loop imagery, and is circled in MIMIC TPW imagery, seen approaching 35W.
I am not expecting anything to become of this wave, due to shear and dry air…not so much as attributed to the SAL, but due to subsidence from the subtropical ridge. Some dust can be noted, however SAL strength doesn’t appear too strong, as noted in the RGB Dust channel from EUMETSAT (African dust shows up as the MAGENTA colors in the satellite image).
Elsewhere, analysis of Global Models indicates no Tropical Storm formation during the next 7-10 days. However, the GFS and CMC indicate numerous trof splits IVO the GOMEX and off the SEUS coast. I will be keeping my eye on the pattern as we enter the first week of June.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS